View Full Version : Oil Prices dropping $4 dollars a day
Ok friday last week oil prices were at a record high of $149 a barrel. The price at the pump went up daily when barrel prices rose.
The past few days due mainly to Saudi Arabia the price has been dropping by $4 dollars a day on average.
The current prices is $133 a barrel.
The Question........
How long until the price at the pump starts falling? :rolleyes::smt012
How long until the price at the pump starts falling? :rolleyes::smt012
:laughat: Er, never?
BBadger
16-07-08, 03:53 PM
:laughat: Er, never?
wrong.
when i take over the world of course
when i take over the world of course
My mistake! I forgot the apocalypse was coming.... :p
But was the $149 factored into the forecourt price? or were they always expecting them to come back again. To be fair the forecourt price didn't double in the past year like the barrel price did.
muffles
16-07-08, 04:01 PM
But was the $149 factored into the forecourt price? or were they always expecting them to come back again. To be fair the forecourt price didn't double in the past year like the barrel price did.
But did the price excluding tax double?
But did the price excluding tax double?
Dont think it was far off. Something like 50p for manufacturing costs now? Take 25p off and you have 90ish p per litre.
Well the VAT is a function of the price & I don't think tax ever came down - they just kept putting off tax increases which we were supposed to be grateful for :roll:
muffles
16-07-08, 04:16 PM
Well the VAT is a function of the price & I don't think tax ever came down - they just kept putting off tax increases which we were supposed to be grateful for :roll:
Yeah the VAT is related to the price but I believe the fuel duty isn't - it's a fixed number of pence per litre. I think you got what I was saying anyway, but essentially if the price of oil doubles, the duty cushions us from its impact. Similarly it will cushion the impact of falls to us though :(
I think fuel duty is around 50p/litre at the moment so a fair chunk.
gettin2dizzy
16-07-08, 05:30 PM
I think it's about 3 months. So we're *yet* to feel the spike of the last prices...
I don't think it will drop back to a decent level again. Even if oil does really become much cheaper the forecourts know how much we'll pay now. And it appears we'll keep paying whatever the price.
Sobering info on duty+tax
http://www.petrolprices.com/fuel-tax.html
I have noticed that for about 4 weeks now it hasn't got higher round here.
northwind
16-07-08, 09:35 PM
Well the VAT is a function of the price & I don't think tax ever came down - they just kept putting off tax increases which we were supposed to be grateful for :roll:
Fuel duty's been cut every year since 2000- the annual rise has always been less than inflation since then. The current fuel price peak is increasing VAT, but the total tax burden is still less than it was in 2000 per litre.
Fuel duty's been cut every year since 2000- the annual rise has always been less than inflation since then. The current fuel price peak is increasing VAT, but the total tax burden is still less than it was in 2000 per litre.
How dare you excuse this government
I label you 'not a team player';)
northwind
16-07-08, 09:49 PM
I only defend them about the stuff they're wrongly accused on, I happily let them swing for the stuff they've done :smt110. I think the more often we blame them wrongly for stuff, the less it matters when they screw up, and that's bad for everyone.
It does my nut though... People are honestly planning to vote tory because of high petrol tax, but you only have to look at the actual numbers for about a minute to see that's madness, brown's cut petrol tax almost every year since he's been in a position of power, whereas successive tory PMs and chancellors wrung every last penny out of the motorist with the 3% above-inflation fuel tax elevator, and got us in this mess in the first place. but the numbers don't matter apparently.
I've not done the maths myself, but apparently if the tory fuel tax plan had continued to the present day, petrol would now cost £1.90 per litre :smt023 Whereas the most motorist-friendly budget since 1993 was the one immediately BEFORE the 2000 fuel protests.
gettin2dizzy
17-07-08, 06:48 AM
I only defend them about the stuff they're wrongly accused on, I happily let them swing for the stuff they've done :smt110. I think the more often we blame them wrongly for stuff, the less it matters when they screw up, and that's bad for everyone.
It does my nut though... People are honestly planning to vote tory because of high petrol tax, but you only have to look at the actual numbers for about a minute to see that's madness, brown's cut petrol tax almost every year since he's been in a position of power, whereas successive tory PMs and chancellors wrung every last penny out of the motorist with the 3% above-inflation fuel tax elevator, and got us in this mess in the first place. but the numbers don't matter apparently.
I've not done the maths myself, but apparently if the tory fuel tax plan had continued to the present day, petrol would now cost £1.90 per litre :smt023 Whereas the most motorist-friendly budget since 1993 was the one immediately BEFORE the 2000 fuel protests.
I can see your point, but that's not exactly the whole story.Whilst the percentage of tax in the whole cost per litre may be less, it's still an inflation busting rise every year. If they were playing fair they would reduce the overall tax cost per litre to the rate of inflation only. Thats in addition to the fact that the tax burden on everyone has increased thanks to the wild spending of Nulabour; Gordon has added "hidden" taxes absolutely everywhere! As for the Tories; I see no difference between the two of these selfish, power hungry thieves.
Alpinestarhero
17-07-08, 07:28 AM
I have noticed that for about 4 weeks now it hasn't got higher round here.
Same here; prices steady at between £1.19 and £1.22 depedning on where you go (Asda in brighton marina is the cheapest I've come across, £1.18 )
I hope the V-power starts to drop in price near winter time
muffles
17-07-08, 07:44 AM
Same here; prices steady at between £1.19 and £1.22 depedning on where you go (Asda in brighton marina is the cheapest I've come across, £1.18 )
I hope the V-power starts to drop in price near winter time
Yep so back on topic, I am hoping it will the cost of the petrol excluding duty will drop soon so we can see some reductions ;) if it's 25p or so that takes it down under £1/litre for most people which would be back to "normal" levels from the previous few years.
I hope the V-power starts to drop in price near winter time
I don't see why really. There's no real BHP benefit to V-Power in an SV engine before 07/08 (lambda sensors in these apparently) - and even then I doubt there's much in it.
Alpinestarhero
17-07-08, 08:03 AM
I don't see why really. There's no real BHP benefit to V-Power in an SV engine before 07/08 (lambda sensors in these apparently) - and even then I doubt there's much in it.
I found last winter it helped with carb icing alot, and the bike started and warmed up easier.
Alternativly, is there some kind of additive I can use to get the same effect?
I tried that, didnt help one bit in poor old doris.
Gazza77
17-07-08, 08:08 AM
I found last winter it helped with carb icing alot, and the bike started and warmed up easier.
Alternativly, is there some kind of additive I can use to get the same effect?
Would have thought any octane booster would have a similar effect. Don't quote me on that though!
Alpinestarhero
17-07-08, 08:12 AM
Would have thought any octane booster would have a similar effect. Don't quote me on that though!
I'll investigate and try it. Might work out about the same price though, buying petrol and additive
Ok, thread derail OFF, back to main topic
Would have thought any octane booster would have a similar effect. Don't quote me on that though!
Couldn't resist. :rolleyes:
The only real difference between unleaded & V-Power is the octane levels. So I'd guess the same too, anything that boosts octane will burn easier in an SV engine.
I used to sell fuel in Bulk to hauliers/petrol stations etc and monitored the Oil markets every day. It usually takes about 4 days for it to be felt at the pump as the delivered product is usually 2-3 days behind the cost of oil. It usually takes a bit longer to come down though
northwind
17-07-08, 04:29 PM
Silkolene Pro FST is the stuff for carb icing, works a charm. But I've always found premium petrols keep it at bay too and that works out cheaper. Optimax and BP Ultimate at least, never used the new Shell or any other brands.
I can see your point, but that's not exactly the whole story.Whilst the percentage of tax in the whole cost per litre may be less, it's still an inflation busting rise every year.
No it isn't. Quite a popular smokescreen this, but it's simply not true.
gettin2dizzy
17-07-08, 07:13 PM
No it isn't. Quite a popular smokescreen this, but it's simply not true.
If you're going to pick me up on it; it depends what rate of inflation you are quoting admittedly ;)
I know your responses well enough to know fine well you know exactly what I mean ;) Taxes go to the same clown in charge of the state circus. Total taxation on the motorist HAVE increased substantially over the years. Do I think this is something the Tories wouldn't have done? Not at all (Cameron has one of those faces I'd love to set fire too). They're all deluded-****s. However for a Labour Government to punish us in the pocket quite as it does, now that did surprise me.
I'm happy with the cost of fuel where it is anyway. Once again traveling is a luxury, and the world is now big again :) (as it should be, it's the biggest thing we've bloody got) ;)
northwind
17-07-08, 07:38 PM
If you're going to pick me up on it; it depends what rate of inflation you are quoting admittedly ;)
I use bank of england, because it's the most conservative, and even with that my point stands. But if you go by any of the common retail price indices it just makes the point stronger ;)
gettin2dizzy
17-07-08, 07:54 PM
I use bank of england, because it's the most conservative, and even with that my point stands. But if you go by any of the common retail price indices it just makes the point stronger ;)
Total tax in 95 before Labour - 39.4 pence (total 54p/litre)
Total tax NOW (1.20 litre) is 68.2p (50.35p Duty + 17.9 VAT)
Using RPI from here (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/tsdataset.asp?vlnk=7172&More=N&All=Y) to track inflation, and using that on the 39.4 pence initial tax; Tax SHOULD now be 56.5p / litre.
Inflation busting for sure. (You made me get the calculator out goddammit;))
northwind
17-07-08, 08:20 PM
Ah, but you're missing out 2 years of tory increases there, labour didn't take over in 1995... Check your calendar before you reach for the calculator :)
gettin2dizzy
17-07-08, 09:47 PM
Ah, but you're missing out 2 years of tory increases there, labour didn't take over in 1995... Check your calendar before you reach for the calculator :)That should still make it 59 p ;)
northwind
17-07-08, 10:29 PM
Now you're getting somewhere- so try it again with the timescale I mentioned in the first place :smt080
injury_ian
17-07-08, 10:50 PM
I filled for 115.9ppl in brighton yesterday... thats 4ppl cheaper than usual?
I filled for 115.9ppl in brighton yesterday... thats 4ppl cheaper than usual? I always get that price in London, plus one free litre per fill (the guage stops, but the petrol still flows :D)
I wander what percentage of drive aways have increase since the petrol prices have gone up?
I wander what percentage of drive aways have increase since the petrol prices have gone up?
ALOT apparently which is why alot of service station are having spike strips installed.
Now priced at $129 nearly $20 drop in a 5 days
That sounds a little... dangerous.
They have been on the news a few times.
Pads are located on the floor and if someone pulls away from a pump without paying, the spikes strip (like a stinger) comes up and a siren and tannoy tell the driver to stop or else lol. If they carry on and go over the strip their tyres go down instantly and a coded chip is put into each tyre which is also trackable.
Costs about £12k to install and will apparently pay for itself after 2 years.
EDIT: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2010561/Rising-petrol-prices-'Stingers'-to-stop-the-forecourt-cheats.html
Petrol around here is 119.9p still, no sign of a drop yet.
Its goes up as soon as oil prices do, but never comes down as quick lol
muffles
18-07-08, 03:21 PM
Costs about £12k to install and will apparently pay for itself after 2 years.
I wonder if that is £12k at today's prices or using a realistic estimate of future prices/driveaway attempts ;)
I sometimes see petrol prices the same way I see house prices, a bubble waiting to burst, hopefully this is it bursting :D
ALOT apparently which is why alot of service station are having spike strips installed.
I always move my bike away to free up the pump before paying 8-[
prices are dropping due to destruction of demand in the USA.
this has all been foretold and is merely a lower part of the plateau...
muffles
18-07-08, 04:58 PM
prices are dropping due to destruction of demand in the USA.
this has all been foretold and is merely a lower part of the plateau...
I am quite interested in the 'Peak Oil' theory - can you point me at anything that goes over this? I have read a couple of things before and they never mentioned that prices would do this - and if I'm brutally honest that is something you would absolutely, crucially have to mention if supporting the theory, because otherwise it gives such a large amount of ammo to people who don't support it.
Read this (http://www.jeffvail.net/2008/07/demand-bifurcation-point.html)
nobody describes peak oil as theory anymore, where have you been?
muffles
18-07-08, 06:59 PM
Read this (http://www.jeffvail.net/2008/07/demand-bifurcation-point.html)
nobody describes peak oil as theory anymore, where have you been?
Interesting. I am not 100% committed to the 'popular' (at last check, e.g. the 'life after the oil crash' site) 'Peak Oil' theory. That is, that we will crash and basically go back to the Dark Ages.
If you take 'Peak Oil' theory as purely that - that there will be a peak when demand goes up, prices start to rise, and reservoirs start to deplete, then yes I believe that. It is but common sense to believe in this, much as it is common sense to believe that you will die, even if it still remains a theory.
So, in summary, I am not currently committed to some of the hype surrounding the effects of 'Peak Oil', that they will be as drastic and immediate as some believe. Why? Well one example that people who believe in the 'big bang Peak Oil' theory used to support their arguments was the recent massive price rises. However there is enough other evidence out there that causes me to at least doubt the argument, although not to fully disprove it - such as the fact that much of the rises were due to institutional investing in oil futures, thus pushing the price up.
From your tone it sounds like you are committed to the hyped version of 'Peak Oil'; previous posts on the matter would also suggest this; if that is correct then I am not agreeing with you - I agree only with the inevitability that there is a peak, and that its effects are far from known and very difficult to predict. Time will tell.
the hyped version is the only way people will listen ;)
http://img.timeinc.net//time/cartoons/20080718/cartoons_01.jpg
muffles
19-07-08, 06:21 PM
http://img.timeinc.net//time/cartoons/20080718/cartoons_01.jpg
Rofl...!
the hyped version is the only way people will listen ;)
It might be appropriate for the traditional Sun or Daily Mail reader, lol...for me, sensationalist stuff just puts me against it, because it's too OTT. It'll be interesting to see what happens, for sure - especially things like the chinese economy and its relationship with oil. The article you linked believes the chinese economy is strong enough, the question I still have is that China exports a lot of stuff cheaply. If oil goes up (ok, it already has) - and it is priced in dollars, not whatever the chinese currency is - then I would expect that china's economy and the value of its currency would need to rise. This would lower the value of its exports, maybe making it less attractive for exports.
Although the Far East is becoming more involved in other markets now, so it's a bit complicated...and exports may not be a big factor in future...
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