Interesting Peak Oil alternative theory

[muffles]

Happened across this http://www.newsweek.com/id/193499

Thought it was an interesting read, initially thought it lacked in any statistical backup but a fair bit was given later. The stats seemed pretty generic which I thought lent weight to the credence - harder to manipulate the appearance of statistics the less you say!

I know Peak Oil's come up here before, would be interesting to hear from pro-PO theorists :) I confess I am slightly on the anti-PO side, purely because of my own selfish fuel needs! :mrgreen:

[jimmy__riddle]

not much we can do about it running out. when it does, we're back to pointy sticks and wearing dead animals

[muffles]

not much we can do about it running out. when it does, we're back to pointy sticks and wearing dead animals

Yeah, it will run out at some point (unless we create a synthetic manufacturing method :confused:) but that's not what the article's about actually. I think the gist of what they're saying is that prices won't go up as in PO theory, but what will happen is they will reach a certain level (measured w.r.t. inflation so not an absolute dollar figure) that "hurts" enough that people will find alternative energy sources and reduce their consumption (and this behaviour is of a cyclical nature).

If it's true (which no-one knows of course) then I think it implies that at the "end" of the oil supplies on this planet, no-one will really care because no-one will really use it any more?

[jimmy__riddle]

life as we know it is dependant on oil. alternative energy sources are all well and good, but lots and lots of things are dependant on oil. Medicine as an example... you cant make drugs effectively without oil, or make the plastics used in much of the equipment. You need plastics to make many of the parts for alternative energy source devices such as solar panels. The amount of solvents and other oil based products used in researching these technologies and virtually all other research is huge. thats a big problem for when we run out of oil. even the reduction in car manufacturing is have a knock on effect in research due to the lack of solvent.

[muffles]

life as we know it is dependant on oil. alternative energy sources are all well and good, but lots and lots of things are dependant on oil. Medicine as an example... you cant make drugs effectively without oil, or make the plastics used in much of the equipment. You need plastics to make many of the parts for alternative energy source devices such as solar panels. The amount of solvents and other oil based products used in researching these technologies and virtually all other research is huge. thats a big problem for when we run out of oil. even the reduction in car manufacturing is have a knock on effect in research due to the lack of solvent.

I understand what you're saying and you could mean one thing or another. The article is saying (as far as I understand it) that if the price of oil rises too much, we as a race will find alternative sources of energy. That's not necessarily talking about alternative sources of energy as they exist today, btw.

So when I said what you said could be taken in one of 2 ways...
1. You are saying you believe our reliance on oil is just too great, and we will not be able to find an alternative in time (before oil runs out)
2. You are saying that right now we rely heavily on oil

2) I don't disagree with. But 1) I do - no basis other than I believe in the human race's ability to innovate (I have to really, otherwise I am believing that we're doomed to failure). I am also a firm believer in the phrase "necessity is the mother of invention", and that we haven't yet reached the point of "necessity" w.r.t. oil yet - thus the situation looks bad.

[jimmy__riddle]

I think our dependnce on oil is too great to find an alternative in the relatively short timescale, although the human race will adapt, but not enough for life to continue as we know it.

I get the theory about peak oil, i was just expressing my opinion, although i admit it is a little bit of a gloomy prediction! lol

I think in terms of the planet, running out of oil will be a benefit as it will force humans to use other energy sources and change lifestyle. however we wont be able to make solar panels or other advanced technology. I agree necessity is the mother of all invention, but i think we are aware of the necessity already, because once it has run out we won't have the resources to research new technologies and will be left without a paddle.

We will probably end up in a world where ray mears would rule, as he seems to be able to make anything out of things found in the woods!

[muffles]

I think our dependnce on oil is too great to find an alternative in the relatively short timescale, although the human race will adapt, but not enough for life to continue as we know it.

I get the theory about peak oil, i was just expressing my opinion, although i admit it is a little bit of a gloomy prediction! lol

I think in terms of the planet, running out of oil will be a benefit as it will force humans to use other energy sources and change lifestyle. however we wont be able to make solar panels or other advanced technology. I agree necessity is the mother of all invention, but i think we are aware of the necessity already, because once it has run out we won't have the resources to research new technologies and will be left without a paddle.

We will probably end up in a world where ray mears would rule, as he seems to be able to make anything out of things found in the woods!

Haha, probably! Yeah I can understand your argument, would be a boring thread if everyone agreed :smt023

[alexs]

The amount of oil used for non-fuel purposes is relatively low so I expect as we reduce the cost of alternative sources of electricity it will balance out enough to make the continued use of petroleum for other purposes economical. There's plenty of non-oil sources of energy which are perfectly usable, it's just going to take us ages to convert to them.

We *can* make petroleum from organic matter already. It's called Thermal Depolymerisation. There's a company that apparently is making oil out of turkey carcasses already. Although I imagine the cost per barrel is a bit higher.

Peak oil doesn't mean we are immediately screwed. It'll just start making lots of things very expensive which is probably when the real drive to convert to alternative energy sources will kick in. There's a lot of talk of peak oil and things lately, especially with the price rises we saw last year. A lot of it is just random speculation by produces like OPEC and consumers and not really based on the available supply under the ground.

There's plenty of new oil around right now too, Iran just discovered a fairly huge oil reserve and Canada is slowly figuring out how to process the enormous reserves trapped in oil sands they have there.

Oh but since I work for a wind energy company...erm. We are all screwed, the end is nigh. Go green!!!!!!11one

[Dicky Ticker]

Right----we invent an electric motorbike with a wind generator,the faster you go the more power generated-------problem solved:D

[muffles]

The amount of oil used for non-fuel purposes is relatively low so I expect as we reduce the cost of alternative sources of electricity it will balance out enough to make the continued use of petroleum for other purposes economical. There's plenty of non-oil sources of energy which are perfectly usable, it's just going to take us ages to convert to them.

We *can* make petroleum from organic matter already. It's called Thermal Depolymerisation. There's a company that apparently is making oil out of turkey carcasses already. Although I imagine the cost per barrel is a bit higher.

Peak oil doesn't mean we are immediately screwed. It'll just start making lots of things very expensive which is probably when the real drive to convert to alternative energy sources will kick in. There's a lot of talk of peak oil and things lately, especially with the price rises we saw last year. A lot of it is just random speculation by produces like OPEC and consumers and not really based on the available supply under the ground.

There's plenty of new oil around right now too, Iran just discovered a fairly huge oil reserve and Canada is slowly figuring out how to process the enormous reserves trapped in oil sands they have there.

Oh but since I work for a wind energy company...erm. We are all screwed, the end is nigh. Go green!!!!!!11one

Sounds like you know a bit of stuff...and it agrees with the article, which is interesting. I think we can probably look forward to "end is nigh" "peak oil" protests every time the price peaks, if it is cyclical as the article suggests! (was "peak oil theory" around last time in '79?)

[alexs]

Sounds like you know a bit of stuff...and it agrees with the article, which is interesting. I think we can probably look forward to "end is nigh" "peak oil" protests every time the price peaks, if it is cyclical as the article suggests! (was "peak oil theory" around last time in '79?)

I don't know that much :) I have no idea what the peak in '79 was about? Cold/Gulf war related perhaps? I wasn't even nearly alive then.

The thing is that it wont be cyclical forever. Right now freaking out about peak oil is almost certainly the wrong thing to do. Peak oil is very very likely to happen in the not exceptionally distant future though. Almost definitely in the next 100 years I expect, I haven't looked at any of the more recent estimates lately though. There is a limited amount of it, and burning stuff in the quantities we do is pretty bad for our health and the environment. It's not nice stuff, no matter how many bunnies and green fields you stick in your TV adverts.

We do need to be thinking about better ways to generate the energy we need, and ways to use it more efficiently. And like the article says, the price of any commodity is only going to come down over time. Renewables are only going to look more attractive while in the long term oil products are only going to look more expensive and complicated.

The main difference seems to be that some people think 50-100 years away before peak oil even begins is so far off as to not matter, while some people seem to think that it's important not to screw the next generation over, or might even be hoping to still be alive by then.