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Whats the general concensus regarding house prices now. Will they drop further in price or are people expecting this to increase or...?
We are thinking of moving. I know we will lose a fair bit on our place but I expect the place we will buy will also be worth less anyway - so was trying to justify the market loss this way.
My thoughts are prices will steady now and smooth for a couple of years before climbing slowly again as demand continues. I am 75% sure they wont go down much more than 10% but wondered if I was alone on this - or are people taking a more conservative view at the moment.
kwak zzr
15-07-09, 08:08 PM
my personal opinion is your thinking along the right tracks, i cant see them dropping anymore but stabilizing and increasing steady from now on.
Spiderman
15-07-09, 08:09 PM
hehe, if i knew the answer to this i'd be a very rich man very quickly. :lol:
this however is the right way to look at it:
We are thinking of moving. I know we will lose a fair bit on our place but I expect the place we will buy will also be worth less anyway - so was trying to justify the market loss this way.
especially if you are downsizing and saving on repayments.
especially if you are downsizing and saving on repayments.
Or we could upsize - then we would save more this way as the bigger house would have lost greater equity than our own :confused: :lol:
kwak zzr
15-07-09, 08:38 PM
look at a house as somewhere to live rather than a profit, lots of ppl are now in negative equity because of the current market down slide but the payments must have been affordable when you took the debt on as most people opt for the fix payment type repayment mortgage.
thefallenangel
15-07-09, 08:39 PM
I've just got a good deal on a 1 bed house.
Was for sale at £86,000 with no offers 15 months ago.
I've just got the last one on shared equity (75/25), legal fees paid, fully furnished, wash/dryer, fridge/freezer for £80,000.
To me if the market drops, i only stomach 3/4 of the loss which will be only a few grand at the most. I've coped about £3-4k of stuff anyway and the housing market will pick back up once companies realise how low staffed many of them are espically at ground level and people get jobs again.
Spiderman
15-07-09, 08:40 PM
i have some swamp land in Florida for sale if you're feeling flush enough to upsize and invest ;)
Nah seriously tho, when i came back here from the canaries in 98 a very influential man in the property game told me to "rent for 6 months and then buy when the prices go down. This market increase cant sustain itself much longer" And he owns a chain of nationwide estate agents.
No one really knows where its gonna go but one thiing i do know is newspapers love to fill pages with speculation about it cos it sells papers and noone can sue them if they get it wrong, lol.
dizzyblonde
15-07-09, 08:47 PM
house prices in this area are exactly the same as last year and the year before......wether they get that or not is anybodies guess
tigersaw
15-07-09, 08:49 PM
I think its the best time there is to consider moving, the difficulty at the moment is raising the finance. Talking to an agent the other week, enquiries are at a high, they have so little on their books to offer they are offering very good incentives to take on properties. As you observe, the difference in value between the property you sell to the one you buy is smaller than it has been for a long time.
metalmonkey
15-07-09, 08:57 PM
As spiderman said, the market is hard to predit.
I have friends and the family in the industry they have said that now isn't the greatest time. Well for one the deposit the banks want is more than I make in year, so how can you ever save that up?
Also unemployment is still rising, have a look here;
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8151017.stm
I saw a report where it was thought it was gonna reach over 3 million. Loads more people are gonna bust this could just be the very start of it.
From what I understand it could drop more than has already. I'm waiting till next year to see where its at.
Isn't this whole shared equaity thing a bit of con? I saw one where it was it will cost only £200/250 month for a 1/2 bed flat. That seems a lot when you have coucil tax and maintance thing as well.
To me its seems mad that the government want and need people to work in critcal services in places like London and can't be bothered to do anything about housing. I doubt pay is gonna go up to match propety prices so whats the solution?
imho: house prices will drop slightly more mebbe 5-10%, then slowly pick back up.
Buy now, make a silly offer, wait for the counter offer, then come back with a slightly improved counter.
At least that's my thinking.
15% deposit Mortgages were offering 4.99-5.29% 2 months ago, now 15% mortgages are for 6% - buyers are back in the game so the greedy piggy bankers are putting their %age rates back up.
At least that's how I'm reading it.
I think the banks are coming back onside now which is a good - at least with my bank it has but 6 months ago it was a real struggle as they were in paralysis.
But I think you are right with the agents incentives - the big problem is there is nothing fresh on the market - no one wants to sell and properties that are on the market have been there for sometime because they have problems.
no one wants to sell and properties that are on the market have been there for sometime because they have problems.
I'll disagree with that statement, if I may!
Whilst there will be some dogs on the market, there is another type of seller - the one that is desperate to sell. That's where, if you're clever, you can make a good deal.
There are many different reasons why people need to sell right now - Some sellers may have been made redundant or going thru' a divorce or they may be retiring or they may have a new born & two large dogs and their current bungalow is too small for them etc.
The above are all reasons I've heard recently for some of the flats I've been to look at. If the sellers are selling now, they are in a position of weakness, don't feel bad for exploiting it - I don't - I'm 35 and have been effectively priced out of the housing market since I first looked in early 2001 (if I'd only bought *that* property in 2000....). I'm on the verge of buying my first property, which I would have been unable to do without the credit crunch.
the_runt69
15-07-09, 09:22 PM
Prices arent dropping too much at the moment due to a shortage of sellers and more people being able to get a mortgage again, its still dicey but can see prices coming down a bit more then going up. Problem is you have to sell yours to buy and unless youve got a buyer in mind or can afford to buy and rent out your place as a source of income I'd hang around a bit
I'll disagree with that statement, if I may!
Whilst there will be some dogs on the market, there is another type of seller - the one that is desperate to sell. That's where, if you're clever, you can make a good deal.
Sure - but they wouldnt have been stuck on the market if they were desperate to sell. The dogs are only dogs because the price is high and the seller isnt willing to compromise. If you have no new properties coming on - all you have left is the dogs/or stubborn sellers.
Sure - but they wouldnt have been stuck on the market if they were desperate to sell. The dogs are only dogs because the price is high and the seller isnt willing to compromise. If you have no new properties coming on - all you have left is the dogs/or stubborn sellers.
Actually - I was surprised how many new properties are still coming onto the market - at least in SE london. Some properties didn't make it as far as RightMove.co.uk. If you're looking & an estate agent has your details they'll be able to show you places on their books that haven't yet gone online.
If you're thinking about selling, put your house on the market - you've got nothing to lose (you don't *have* to accept any offer) & everything to gain.
timwilky
15-07-09, 11:29 PM
there has been no change in price round here over the past 2 years. A terrace will start at 60 in town and 120 out. A semi 80 in town and 180 out etc.
Perhaps I live in an area where few have been added to the recession dung heap. although I suspect my son has moved into negative equity when he put his 5% down 2 years ago.
What I am seeing is local builders who do garden grabbing, they build 6 - 20 houses on what was once somebody's garden and it gets through the planning as brown field development. they are currently selling about 60%. but seem to be able to afford to hang onto the unsold and develop new sites (or gardens)
What I have also seen is brickies on these sites that would never have worked weekend on site Saturday and Sunday. Has the rate
dropped or are they on a completion bonus?
However, I see one of my local councils is to offer grants to first time buyers. where where they 2 years ago when I gave my lad the deposit to buy a house.
Again my brother got is trouble in the last recession and had to sell up. he ended up in a housing association flat that was totally unsuitable for him and his family. They actually gave him about 12 grand to move out and buy a place. his all rental had been paid by the state. How many first time buyer 15 years ago would have been able to put down 12 grand. he has a nice 5 bedroom detached house only 18 months old. and still paying less than his rental on the one bedroom flat currently is
Von Teese
16-07-09, 06:58 AM
Have you spoken to a mortgage advisor and considered your options.
There is a very good market out there for letting a property, simply because first time buyers are struggling to get a mortgage to buy their own place.
You could consider:
Buying a second property...its actually suprising I got a second mortgage on my own and at one time had 3 houses.
Renting it out or renting out the property you live in and moving into the new place.
That way, you get the mortgage paid for on the second property and you sell up when the economy has returned to normal.
Just an idea :)
[Edit] oh and best to mention that if you do decide to do this then its worth living in the property you want to SELL, simply because when you sell it you dont get capital gains tax ;)
However, I see one of my local councils is to offer grants to first time buyers. where where they 2 years ago when I gave my lad the deposit to buy a house.
This is a good incentive i think. Australians have been doing it for many years now (once they realised people were struggling mostly to get started). It became a big incentive for people to get motivated and serious about saving.
They were probably thinkging about it here at the same time, but couldnt decide if it was a local or national government scheme so took years of discussion :rolleyes: ;)
Speedy Claire
16-07-09, 08:23 AM
I think that house prices might drop just a little bit more before they level off. One thing to bear in mind though is that there is an increasing number of repossessions taking place so there are more homes available on the market than there have been for some time. With lots of homes up for sale at the moment and fewer mortgages being issued you should have plenty of choice.
Also more homes on the market and fewer mortgages being issued means cheaper homes. You could pick up a relative bargain now that will pick up in value over the next few years – but bear in mind that if you are selling your own home, the reductions in value will apply to your home too. People are being asked to expect to reduce their property by 10 to 20% but the gap between what you are selling and what you are buying has narrowed and this will allow people to get a bigger property for less.
Anyways, if you decide to move best of luck and hope all goes well.
muffles
16-07-09, 08:32 AM
We're looking to buy right now (have got to the stage of putting offers in) so I'm keeping an eye on this :D
I did some analysis and historically, compared to the 80s crash anyway, we would be near the bottom. I was only looking at London actually, but in the 80s the average price crashed 27% or so. So far from the peak for London now, it's crashed approx 25%. So pretty close to the bottom historically.
Could it be worse this time? Sure - as mentioned unemployment is still rising, etc. But then we don't have the high interest rates of the 80s, either. So for me it's not guaranteed either way. That's why we're looking at 10 year fixed rates though!
muffles
16-07-09, 08:43 AM
15% deposit Mortgages were offering 4.99-5.29% 2 months ago, now 15% mortgages are for 6% - buyers are back in the game so the greedy piggy bankers are putting their %age rates back up.
We've been looking at putting down a 15% deposit and the mortgage rates have gone up but not by that much - we've been looking at mortgage rates etc since about March. Think we were looking at a 5.5% ish rate and now 6%/just under 6%. I think there was a 5.79% we saw.
Oh and everyone remember to factor in the fixed costs into the interest rate to get the 'proper' rate you'll pay!
That's why we're looking at 10 year fixed rates though!
We could start a whole new thread on the best types of mortgage to choose!
One of my mates has just chosen a 5 year rate. I've opted for 2 years - I've only got a deposit of 15% & I think/hope that when I come to get a new mortgage deal I'll have the means to negotiate for a better offer.
muffles
16-07-09, 09:12 AM
We could start a whole new thread on the best types of mortgage to choose!
One of my mates has just chosen a 5 year rate. I've opted for 2 years - I've only got a deposit of 15% & I think/hope that when I come to get a new mortgage deal I'll have the means to negotiate for a better offer.
2 years, that's brave lol. We were looking at 5 year minimum, but then the 10 year ones are actually a comparable price to the 5 year, so we'd rather that security. When I checked, the interest rate on offer is historically pretty low - not the lowest, but only 1% or so off it.
We're looking at a £200k house & in the first few years it only pays off £3k of the capital each year....so if we factor in possible further price depression, it was just ruled out as an option - too risky if we don't have minimum 15% equity in the house when it comes time to remortgage. 5+ years would give us enough time to pay off capital & for the prices to recover (we hope!).
I'm guessing you are looking at prices rising in the next 2 years so you have 15%+ capital when it comes time to remortgage?
2 years, that's brave lol....
I'm guessing you are looking at prices rising in the next 2 years so you have 15%+ capital when it comes time to remortgage?
I'm counting on 2 things:
I can pay upto 10% of the mortgage off each year without penalty, so if I can put a bit aside each month, it makes more sense than investing in savings at the moment.
House prices seem to be a bit more stable in London, so I'm hoping that they'll be the first to pick up!
Then I can see how the economy is going an choose a mortgage accordingly - whether it's Fixed Rate or Variable.....
Biker Biggles
16-07-09, 09:25 AM
Ultimately any house price recovery has to be underpinned by general economic recovery,and with unemployment rising at record rates,and our industrial base virtually wiped out,I cant see where this general economic recovery is going to come from.I think we are in for a very long dip,maybe a permanent one.
muffles
16-07-09, 09:29 AM
I'm counting on 2 things:
I can pay upto 10% of the mortgage off each year without penalty, so if I can put a bit aside each month, it makes more sense than investing in savings at the moment.
House prices seem to be a bit more stable in London, so I'm hoping that they'll be the first to pick up!
Then I can see how the economy is going an choose a mortgage accordingly - whether it's Fixed Rate or Variable.....
Yeah, we are also looking at using the 10% overpayment that seems to be on most mortgages. Haven't really got together any figures but it will deffo reduce the monthly payment so we'll be happy! I guess we probably have different predictions/risk assessments of the future economy...the stuff I was basically saying earlier was that right now, it seems like deals are actually pretty good. So the risk of not fixing that deal seem disproportionately high to the possible gain - i.e. % chance of a gain times the possible rate improvement. Catch up again in a couple of years and see who's right? :lol:
Dave20046
16-07-09, 09:31 AM
my personal opinion is your thinking along the right tracks, i cant see them dropping anymore but stabilizing and increasing steady from now on.
The recession's getting deeper and ****er, more and more are losing their jobs I have a feeling there'll be a small up then a dip then nothing for ages/a decline as everyone'll be a bit uneasy/poor.
Just my guess though, it literally is anyones guess.
Catch up again in a couple of years and see who's right? :lol:
Yup - I could be completely wrong! Most likely I am. I don't think I'll be in negative equity and that's the major thing.
muffles
16-07-09, 09:58 AM
Yup - I could be completely wrong! Most likely I am. I don't think I'll be in negative equity and that's the major thing.
I dunno, you have as much chance of being right IMO when talking in terms of direction, etc. For me it was just the risk vs reward ratio was not big enough to justify opening that window :)
As you say negative equity has to be the worst thing...although if you stuffed in a 15% deposit, having only 5% in 2 years time would hurt a bit too :( good luck with it anyway!
We do a lot of resi work. Last year there wasn't a market, nothing was moving. I would say that we are receiving three times the level of instructions of say 6 - 8 months ago - I'm trying to work out if it's sustained - if it is then I will need to take somebody on as poor Sarah can't cope. That, or do some of the resi work myself.
You could consider:
Buying a second property...its actually suprising I got a second mortgage on my own and at one time had 3 houses.
Renting it out or renting out the property you live in and moving into the new place.
That way, you get the mortgage paid for on the second property and you sell up when the economy has returned to normal.
All good thoughts. We have looked at this as well and if we can keep it we will. I suspect we will need to sell it in order to get where we want as it will be the final step for us before we need to downsize when we are old and grey - It would also be nice to keep the mortgage (and it is portable) as its on an excellent rate.
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