View Full Version : NHS Reported Covid 19 Deaths
Below is a link to the NHS reported figures (For England) on Covid 19 deaths.
Is it just me or does it look not as dramatic as what the News outlets seem to be reporting. . . . . ?
I'll try and update this post with that the news outlets report daily to see what the correlation is of the overinflated figure - are they also including 'normal' deaths?
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/?fbclid=IwAR079t-y0Wl4sY1sxMUcmVT3n7VHc45pLQeHZE1uA4Cs2DL1eOELW8BpO hI
Craig380
05-04-20, 08:00 AM
Mpst of the news outlets go with the headline UK-wide figure, before breaking it down by country. In this piece from yesterday's Guardian, they mention the same total of 3,939 deaths in England that yesterday's NHS England data does: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/04/five-year-old-child-among-latest-uk-coronavirus-deaths
What is really striking to me is the testing / infected ratio. Most (not all, but most) people who have been tested are those who have been admitted to hospital with Covid-19 symptome, or underlying conditions that could be exacerbated by Covid-19. The total number of people in the UK tested since the outbreak began was 183,190 yesterday, with 41,903 testing positive. In other works, over 77% were not infected.
I am not posting this to trivialise Covid-19, but Public Health England estimates that on average, 17,000 people have died from seasonal 'flu every year in England alone between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19.
Mpst of the news outlets go with the headline UK-wide figure, before breaking it down by country. In this piece from yesterday's Guardian, they mention the same total of 3,939 deaths in England that yesterday's NHS England data does: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/04/five-year-old-child-among-latest-uk-coronavirus-deaths
What is really striking to me is the testing / infected ratio. Most (not all, but most) people who have been tested are those who have been admitted to hospital with Covid-19 symptome, or underlying conditions that could be exacerbated by Covid-19. The total number of people in the UK tested since the outbreak began was 183,190 yesterday, with 41,903 testing positive. In other works, over 77% were not infected.
I am not posting this to trivialise Covid-19, but Public Health England estimates that on average, 17,000 people have died from seasonal 'flu every year in England alone between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19.
I agree with you, that the reporting of it is making it sound worse than it is, again not to trivialise it.
There is a 'whiff' of management by fear in the way it is presented.
The Office of National Statistics has all the data for deaths in previous years. I am waiting for the March figures to be updated for 2020 to see how they compare to 2019 - this will give a good YoY comparison of the impact this is actually having above the 'average' death rate.
This is the website I have been keeping an eye on.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
IIRC the estimated mortality rate was 5% for this, and so far the global statistics reflect that (if the information used is as accurate as can be). The UK's is currently higher due to the small amount of tests performed.
Craig380
05-04-20, 09:50 AM
That's 5% related to known infections - and although over 77% of people tested in the UK were negative for Covid-19, the actual number of infections out in the wider community is likely to be anywhere between 5x and 10x the known number.
The latest data from China shows that 80% of people who tested positive for Covid-19 were asymptomatic - i.e. no symptoms at all, or just feeling a little under the weather, but no fever etc.
Based on this, it's reckoned that Covid-19 has been around for several months longer than previously thought: but no-one was looking for it, and those that did present symptoms were presumed to have a 'normal' flu infection.
quinnj3
05-04-20, 12:23 PM
In some ways I agree with the figures being somewhat inflated. I read an article on bbc news website which basically said the recorded Covid 19 deaths included everyone who died that tested positive for the virus. Not all died as a direct result of being infected. From what I took from the article it appears a large percentage of deaths would have likely occurred without the virus anyway.
While these figures only show the deaths, with this virus in particular, a percentage of people will experience severe symptoms that requires hospital treatment. More so than the flu. To avoid overwhelming the health service and causing normally preventable deaths from occurring the government is trying to control the spread so to protect the really vulnerable and manage the rate of admissions to hospital.
I’m not an expert, I’m not in anyway medically trained but this is my view on the subject.
This is a virus that people can build immunity to after infection. If the government locked down completely we would expect waves of infection one after the other and actually prolong the outbreak. If they don’t put in control measures many people will needlessly die but the population will become immune quickly to this strain and it shouldn’t cause a problem again. In my opinion a balance must be struck to allow the virus into the community in a controlled way so the least vulnerable build immunity. If there are enough people immune to the virus then it can no longer spread as aggressively as it has been and eventually fade away.
My two pence!
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Grant66
06-04-20, 12:13 PM
This is a virus that people can build immunity to after infection.
Has that been proved?
There have been reports of reinfection & that there are, at least, 8 separate strains of this particular virus.
You're immune to the particular strain of the common cold you caught before, that doesn't stop you catching a cold again (common cold also being a coronovirus).
Not trying to scaremonger but surely the Tories wouldn't be damaging the economy with the lockdown unless the consequences of not doing it were a lot worse.
Sent from a S20 using Tapatalk with that kin cr4p blocked
daktulos
06-04-20, 09:24 PM
(common cold also being a coronovirus)
<pedant>one possible cause of the common cold is a coronavirus</pedant>
I do agree that nothing is known for sure yet, though.
The Statistics below are from the ONS (note does not include Scotland or NI; reported below)
England & Wales Figures
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to March 27th:
150,057
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
647
Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
153,868
Difference:
-3,811 (less deaths in 2020)
Main points from latest release
The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 27 March 2020 (Week 13) was 11,141; this represents an increase of 496 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 12) and 1,011 more than the five-year average.
A total of 150,047 deaths were registered in England and Wales between 28 December 2019 and 27 March 2020 (year to date), and of these, 647 involved the coronavirus (COVID-19) (0.4%); including deaths that occurred up to 27 March but were registered up to 1 April, the number involving COVID-19 was 1,639.
For deaths that occurred up to 27 March, there were 1,568 deaths in England registered by 1 April involving COVID-19 compared with 1,649 deaths reported by NHS England for the same period in a newly published dataset.
Of the deaths registered in Week 13, 539 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 4.8% of all deaths; this compared with 103 (1.0% of all deaths) in Week 12.
This is slightly lower than the figures reported by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) for Week 13 (739) as it takes time for deaths to be reported and included in Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures.
Of deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 13, 92.9% (501 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes.
Please note, where Easter falls in previous years will have an impact on the five-year average used for comparison.
Notes
The table includes number of deaths for which the underlying cause was coded to respiratory diseases as defined in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems Tenth Revision (ICD-10), as well as age group, sex and by area of usual residence.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglan dandwales
The next update is due on 14th April. I'll upload once this figure comes out as the past week has been one of the heavier reported ones for Covid related deaths.
Scotland figures:
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to March 30th:
17,553
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
354
Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
17,473
Difference:
80 (increased)
As at 5th April , there have been a total of 354 deaths registered in Scotland where the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate. The first mention of COVID-19 in a registered death certificate was the week beginning 16th March 2020.
Of the total number of deaths registered in week 14 (30 March – 5 April), there were 282 where COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate (16.2% of the total) an increase of 220 from the previous week (23 – 29 March).
Over 60% of all deaths involving COVID-19 were of people aged 75 or over.
This number is different from the count of deaths published daily on the gov.scot website, because the latter is based on deaths of those who have tested positive for COVID-19 whereas these figures include all deaths where COVID-19 (included suspected cases) was mentioned on the death certificate
https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats
NI Figures
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to April 3rd):
4,386
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
65
Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
4,509
Difference:
123 (less)
https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths
The Statistics below are from the ONS (note does not include Scotland or NI; reported below)
England & Wales Figures
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to March 27th:
150,057
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
647
Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
153,868
Difference:
-3,811 (less deaths in 2020)
Main points from latest release
The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 27 March 2020 (Week 13) was 11,141; this represents an increase of 496 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 12) and 1,011 more than the five-year average.
A total of 150,047 deaths were registered in England and Wales between 28 December 2019 and 27 March 2020 (year to date), and of these, 647 involved the coronavirus (COVID-19) (0.4%); including deaths that occurred up to 27 March but were registered up to 1 April, the number involving COVID-19 was 1,639.
For deaths that occurred up to 27 March, there were 1,568 deaths in England registered by 1 April involving COVID-19 compared with 1,649 deaths reported by NHS England for the same period in a newly published dataset.
Of the deaths registered in Week 13, 539 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 4.8% of all deaths; this compared with 103 (1.0% of all deaths) in Week 12.
This is slightly lower than the figures reported by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) for Week 13 (739) as it takes time for deaths to be reported and included in Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures.
Of deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 13, 92.9% (501 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes.
Please note, where Easter falls in previous years will have an impact on the five-year average used for comparison.
Notes
The table includes number of deaths for which the underlying cause was coded to respiratory diseases as defined in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems Tenth Revision (ICD-10), as well as age group, sex and by area of usual residence.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglan dandwales
The next update is due on 28th April. I'll upload once this figure comes out as the past week has been one of the heavier reported ones for Covid related deaths.
Scotland figures:
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to March 30th:
17,553
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
354
Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
17,473
Difference:
80 (increased)
As at 5th April , there have been a total of 354 deaths registered in Scotland where the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate. The first mention of COVID-19 in a registered death certificate was the week beginning 16th March 2020.
Of the total number of deaths registered in week 14 (30 March – 5 April), there were 282 where COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate (16.2% of the total) an increase of 220 from the previous week (23 – 29 March).
Over 60% of all deaths involving COVID-19 were of people aged 75 or over.
This number is different from the count of deaths published daily on the gov.scot website, because the latter is based on deaths of those who have tested positive for COVID-19 whereas these figures include all deaths where COVID-19 (included suspected cases) was mentioned on the death certificate
https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats
NI Figures
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to April 3rd):
4,386
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
65
Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
4,509
Difference:
123 (less)
https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths
The Statistics below are from the ONS (note does not include Scotland or NI; reported below)
England & Wales Figures
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to April 10th:
184,960
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
10,335
Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
174,963
Difference:
9,997 (increased deaths in 2020)
Main points from latest release
The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 10 April 2020 (Week 15) was 18,516; this represents an increase of 2,129 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 14), is 7,996 deaths more than the five-year average and is the highest weekly total since Week 1 in 2000.
Of the deaths registered in Week 15, 6,213 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 33.6% of all deaths; this compares with 3,475 (21.2% of all deaths) in Week 14.
In London, over half (53.2%) of deaths registered in Week 15 involved COVID-19; the West Midlands also had a high proportion of COVID-19 deaths, accounting for 37.0% of deaths registered in this region.
total deaths registered by place of occurrence between Week 11 (when first COVID-19 deaths were registered) and Week 15, the number of deaths in care homes has doubled by 2,456 deaths (99.4% increase); whilst we have seen a 72.4% increase (3,603 deaths) in hospitals, and 51.1% increase in private homes (1,392 deaths).
Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 15, 83.9% (8,673 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in care homes, private homes and hospices.
Week 15 included the Good Friday bank holiday; the five-year average does show a decrease in registrations over the Easter holiday; however, the Coronavirus Act 2020 allowed registry offices to remain open over Easter, which may have reduced any drop in registrations for Week 15 2020.
The table includes number of deaths for which the underlying cause was coded to respiratory diseases as defined in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems Tenth Revision (ICD-10), as well as age group, sex and by area of usual residence.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglan dandwales
The next update is due on 14th April. I'll upload once this figure comes out as the past week has been one of the heavier reported ones for Covid related deaths.
Scotland figures:
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to April 6th):
19,526
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
962
Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
18,573
Difference:
953 (increased)
Key Findings
As at 12 April, there have been a total of 962 deaths registered in Scotland where the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate. The first mention of COVID-19 in a registered death certificate was the week beginning 16th March 2020.
Of the total number of deaths registered in week 15 (6 to 12 April), there were 608 where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate (30.9% of the total) an increase of 326 from the previous week (30 March – 5 April).
A quarter (25%) of COVID-19 deaths registered to date related to deaths in care homes. 62% of deaths were in hospitals and 13% of deaths were at home or non-institutional settings.
Almost 70% of all deaths involving COVID-19 to date were of people aged 75 or over.
This number is different from the count of deaths published daily on the gov.scot website, because the latter is based on deaths of those who have tested positive for COVID-19. The NRS figures published here include all deaths where COVID-19 (included suspected cases) was mentioned on the death certificate.
https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats
NI Figures
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to April 10th):
4,821
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
141
Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
4,804
Difference:
17 (increase)
https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths
Updated figures.
What we are starting to see now is a larger differential between the avg deaths vs 2020 (minus Covid) number is rising. This means that we are seeing an increase to the number of 'normal' deaths; Is this caused by all the focus being moved to Covid, and other 'routine' and planned medical procedures being delayed which is starting to be reflected?
Updated Covid Numbers
England & Wales Figures
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to April 17th:
207,311
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
19,093
Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
185,190
Difference:
22,121 (increased deaths in 2020)
Main points from latest release
The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 17 April 2020 (Week 16) was 22,351; this represents an increase of 3,835 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 15) and 11,854 more than the five-year average; this is the highest weekly total recorded since comparable figures begin in 1993.
Of the deaths registered in Week 16, 8,758 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 39.2% of all deaths; this compares with 6,213 (33.6% of all deaths) in Week 15.
In London, over half (55.5%) of deaths registered in Week 16 involved COVID-19; the North West and North East also had a high proportion of COVID-19 deaths, accounting for 42.3% and 41.1% respectively of deaths registered in these regions.
Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 16, 77.4% (14,796 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in care homes, private homes and hospices.
The number of overall deaths in care homes for Week 16 was 7,316; this is 2,389 higher than Week 15, almost double the number in Week 14 and almost triple the number in Week 13.
Week 16 included the Easter Monday bank holiday, and the five-year average shows a decrease in registrations over the Easter holiday; however, the Coronavirus Act 2020 allowed registry offices to remain open over Easter, which may have reduced any drop in registrations for Week 16 2020.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nglandandwales
Scotland figures:
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to April 20th):
23,281
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
2,272
Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
20,727
Difference:
2554 (increased)
Key Findings
As at 26 April, there have been a total of 2,272 deaths registered in Scotland where the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate. The first mention of COVID-19 in a registered death certificate was the week beginning 16th March 2020.
Of the total number of deaths registered in week 17 (20 to 26 April), there were 656 where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, an increase of 4 from the previous week (13 to 19 April).
Deaths involving COVID-19 as a proportion of all deaths has increased from:
16% in week 14;
30% in week 15;
34% in week 16; and
36% in week 17.
Over a third (39%) of COVID-19 deaths registered to date related to deaths in care homes. 52% of deaths were in hospitals and 9% of deaths were at home or non-institutional settings.
Almost three quarters (74%) of all deaths involving COVID-19 to date were of people aged 75 or over.
This number is different from the count of deaths published daily on the gov.scot website, because the latter is based on deaths of those who have tested positive for COVID-19. The NRS figures published here include all deaths where COVID-19 (included suspected cases) was mentioned on the death certificate.
NI Figures
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to April 10th):
5,247
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
242
Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
5,094
Difference:
153 (increase)
https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths
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