Peak Oil, post-industrial world. TEOTWAWKI

[Razor]

Peak Oil, post-industrial world.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMQd5nGEkr4

It's simple, after the world reaches peak oil production, demand will outstrip supply. Things will change.
If you google "PEAK OIL" you'll get thousands of hits, a lot of them total loonies. It's the scientists and geologists that support this theory that make you think there might be something in it.

Lucky for us a SV650 is pretty cheap to run, but not when fuel is a fiver a litre.

The survivalists are pleased...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QovBLFZhQME

[Razor]

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/sto...long_emergency (http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/7203633/the_long_emergency)

http://www.peakoil.net/

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/resear...ype=msspeeches (http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4287300/

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortu...12/26/8364646/ (http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2005/12/26/8364646/)

[Tim in Belgium]

Should I be selling my cage now then, 26 mpg on a good day 8-[

Or can I hang on a year??

Thing is as the price goes up more supplies become financially viable, the oil sands in Canada, the Falklands (That's why there was a war!) etc.

[Ed]

Thing is as the price goes up more supplies become financially viable, the Falklands (That's why there was a war!) etc.

Oh please Tim, that is a pile of horse droppings:rolleyes:

[Razor]

Thing is as the price goes up more supplies become financially viable, the oil sands in Canada, the Falklands (That's why there was a war!) etc.



It's more about the end of cheap oil, that's what fuels the constant economic growth that most economies are based on.

Don't sell the car, just use it to carry seeds and gardening tools. Grow some of your own food, get out of debt and buy a really warm sleeping bag.

[Alpinestarhero]

So, what'll it take to make my SV run on ethanol? I can supply the ethanol, and to a high degree of purity.....

Matt

[Razor]

http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/0,13026,1464050,00.html

[Razor]

So, what'll it take to make my SV run on ethanol? I can supply the ethanol, and to a high degree of purity.....

Matt

Dunno really, ethanol is made from corn mostly, would you rather eat or drive?

[gettin2dizzy]

you got a still? been thinking of making one for a while....

[Razor]

For ethanol or moonshine?

[Alpinestarhero]

Dunno really, ethanol is made from corn mostly, would you rather eat or drive?

You can get ethanol from alot of things, not just corn. There are a few fields going spare, so growing extra corn wouldnt be a problem...

With the research surrounding photovoltaic cells (solar panels) and them becoming more and more efficient at converting sunlight energy (photons) into electrical power, AND the technology becoming cheaper, people will be able to afford them and that means we can save our fuel for our bikes!

Or something.

Na, if there was a shortage, I'd convert the bike to run on ethanol, or something similar

Matt

[Razor]

"The boom in ethanol fuels in the United States and elsewhere could have devastating effects on food prices and worsen world hunger, a new study argues. The study by C. Ford Runge and Benjamin Senauer of the University of Minnesota said the rush into ethanol threatens to divert massive amounts of corn and other food crops into biofuels.
The researcher write in the May/June edition of Foreign Affairs that governments should stop incentives for ethanol until biofuels can be economically produced from sources other than corn and soybeans."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070403/sc_afp/usenergyfoodeconomy_070403185953

Interesting that people think they can get around this issue, energy is everything.

[Razor]

Recent article here (http://politics.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,2216342,00.html)

"$100 oil: the terrible truth



Nearing the price barrier is a pointer to the peak of output, and the crisis the powerful want to ignore
As the price of crude oil sets records almost daily, the British government remains stunningly complacent. With the $100 barrel a real and constant threat, the prime minister's website blithely proclaims "the world's oil and gas resources are sufficient to sustain economic growth for the foreseeable future". Officials refuse to define what is meant by "foreseeable", but it is clear they suffer from extreme myopia, or worse. All the evidence suggests we are rapidly approaching "peak oil", the point when global production goes into terminal decline for geological reasons. The industry consensus is that world output, excluding that from the Opec producers, will peak in about 2010. It is also widely agreed that Opec has grossly exaggerated the size of its reserves, meaning that global output must also peak soon. Since oil provides 95% of all transport energy, as well as vital inputs to modern agriculture, this is likely to provoke a crisis."

[gettin2dizzy]

For a subject so important you'd think there would be enough research for a clear cut answer. America will be first to go down the pan when we run out, especially with their terrible economy at the moment *snigger*.

[Razor]

The clear cut answer is that the world has not produced more oil this year than it did in 2006. Next year's figures will tell us more. The peak can only be seen based on previous data. The simple reason for that, is that too many oil producing nations lie to conceal the truth about field depletion. So to get the true tipping point we have to look at historical stats.

[Jester666]

Every thing IS a conspiracy!! We're all doomed!!

Stop worrying about it and it'll all go away! Possibly!

[GastonJ]

Why worry about something you have no control over? Probably true that countries are now hiding how much oil they have, since the US had plans to invade Suadi at one time over oil - would you admit it?

"Shut mines, save the coal for later when everyone else has run out", springs to mind. Same may be true about oil.. There's also still the abiotic theory, in which case the oil companies are just driving up the price in any case.

Again, pointless worrying about something that you have no control over?

[yorkie_chris]

Na, if there was a shortage, I'd convert the bike to run on ethanol, or something similar

Matt

Alcohols an easy fuel, just need bigger jets as theres less energy per volume.

However you'll burn twice as much (ish), and where are you going to find that much?

Of course the survivalists are pleased, they wouldn't want to have stockpiled 3 million rounds of ammunition for nothing :-P

[therealvw]

Prices of Petrol here in NZ have gone up over the past year about 30 cents(a litre) to around 1 dollar 72. Doesn't seem that bad when you convert it to UK pounds(around 2.8 pounds to the dollar), but if you are earning NZ bucks then you can understand why there is an outcry here.
Diesel is pretty cheap, 1.28, so I'm thinking of getting a little Tdi of somesort to pootle around in when a.) It is too wet to ride, or b) the bike is off the road for any reason. Ive got a little Civic, 1.3, that does a fair amount to the tank, about 460k's, to fill it up about $60.
I might be push biking to work too sometime depending on the weather....

[Razor]

"Shut mines, save the coal for later when everyone else has run out", springs to mind. Same may be true about oil.. There's also still the abiotic theory, in which case the oil companies are just driving up the price in any case.


Abiotic theory is groundless. The Russians like it, but they're struggling to increase their oil output. If it was true all those old Texan fields would have replenished themselves by now.


Of course the survivalists are pleased, they wouldn't want to have stockpiled 3 million rounds of ammunition for nothing :-P

UK firearms certificates limit the amount of ammo you can hold. SO I guess you're talking about the septics?

I like how some people say that there's nothing that can be down about it, you're probably right. Geologist's say we should have been putting more effort into alternative fuels in the 70's when we had the time.
Now it's too late.

[Alpinestarhero]

Perhaps we should all slot in diesal engines into our frames, and then use old chip-fat etc etc to run our bikes

The end of the world is nigh, we know that, but its not for a good while, and there is increasing focus on research into alternative fuels (hydrogen being the big one)

So when oil is gone, we'll still have energy sources :)

Matt

[yorkie_chris]

The end of the world is nigh, we know that, but its not for a good while, and there is increasing focus on research into alternative fuels (hydrogen being the big one)

And where, pray tell, is the energy to produce hydrogen going to come from?

[Pedrosa]

All the more reason for getting yourself the fastest gas guzzling bikes and cars you can manage. Enjoy hooning around until the last drop has gone.Then we'll all sit down and scratch heads as to how we are going to get our kicks in the future. Unless we ready ourselves for a "Mad Max" type of era?:cool:

[gettin2dizzy]

Mad Max wouldn't eb the same if there was no fuel. Gibson would look a **** in a prius.

[Pedrosa]

Mad Max wouldn't eb the same if there was no fuel. Gibson would look a **** in a prius.


But you overlooked the fact that I used the phrase.."ready ourseolves" that is we stash a bit of go go juice.;)

[Mousetrapper]

For the more techie view this is a really good site. Quite easy to get addicted to checking the price of oil several times a day and going "oh ****, is really too late to sort some stuff out that might just help things be a little easier".

Everyones a peak oil person, the real question is when - 2 years ago, now, 5 years or 100 years (I give you a clue, it's really not 100 years from now!!).

http://www.theoildrum.com

[GastonJ]

Abiotic theory is groundless. The Russians like it, but they're struggling to increase their oil output. If it was true all those old Texan fields would have replenished themselves by now.

Yes, so we still hang on to a 300 year old theory about oil that's never been questioned. Still if you were an oil company, with rising prices each time people mentioned oil running out - would you question it?

Incidently how much marine life does it take to make a barrel of oil? I'd like to know how they coveniently all went to the same place to die and weren't eaten by other marine life. The marine life (or unlife since it was dead) then laid there in a pile for millions of years being covered in sediment to become oil... hmmm

The Russians output more oil than Saudi. Go figure.

Oh well oil companies get rich, and governments rake in more money each and every time the price rises. Good for all really, except the poor schmuk who is having to pay for it.

[therealvw]

He'd also probably blame the lack of oil on Jewish people.

Thats a pretty typical statement that is a based on a load of heresy.

He hasn't got an issue with Jews or with the Jewish race.

People started plastering him with the Anti-semitic label after The Passion of The Christ . The Jewish elders said he portrayed the Jewish leaders of the time as barbaric with the way they treated Jesus. No one got on the Anti-Latin (Could be ant catholic) bandwagon with the way the Romans treated him did they???

[therealvw]

Sorry double posting!?!?

[GastonJ]

And where, pray tell, is the energy to produce hydrogen going to come from?


Nuclear power, it isn't going anywhere at all, the more oil costs the better the business case for nuke power stations.

Bike of the future? http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=buNjfuVicyo :(

OK I admit it, I'm a cynic when it comes to large companies and governments. Both are only in it to make as much as they can while they can, and in any way they can.

[Razor]

Where is all this uranium coming from?
Studies done indicate a potential uranium shortage, if they build all the new stations needed.
The fuel of the future will be coal, dirty, polluting coal.

[GastonJ]

Dismantled nuclear weapons of course. :p

If they use fast breeder reactors (uranium-238) then the estimates are for 5 billion years worth on the planet. Drop a billion off to be sure, although 20% out is quite a large factor to build in.

Anyhow, there you go. May cost more, but when there nothing else and prices are so high then it becomes ecconomically viable.

[GastonJ]

I like the way people always shout "wind farms, good clean power".... and then scream louder "not in my back yard!!!". Almost as bad as people complaining about lack of mobile phone coverage and again, not in my back yard when a new mast is needed to give them coverage.

If the only realistic way to generate the amount electricity required is from nuclear power stations then so be it. I don't think the odd wind farm or solar panel is going to cut it for the worlds power requirements somehow.

[markmoto]

this peak oil thing is happening believe it ;-) you watch the price of petrol rise and rise and rise!

[Caddy2000]

There are plans for a solar thermal generation system for North Africa. Apparently there is more than enough sunlight to provide the whole of europe with electricity in a 20 square kilometer area in Algeria.
All we need to do is convert our natonal grid over to 100v DC......

We have the technology - just not the drive to use it......


P.S. Bio Ethanol - Bi-porduct of the sugar processing industry. Just ask Mexico city where every cab runs on the stuff!

[Biker Biggles]

I just wish the mast on my sand yacht was low enough to get into Sainsburys car park.I can at least keep up with the M1 traffic in a good South Westerly blow.:rolleyes:

[Razor]

http://www.gpsa.co.za/Jokes/Zimbabwe/p_queue2.jpg

[GastonJ]

There are plans for a solar thermal generation system for North Africa. Apparently there is more than enough sunlight to provide the whole of europe with electricity in a 20 square kilometer area in Algeria.
All we need to do is convert our natonal grid over to 100v DC......

We have the technology - just not the drive to use it......


P.S. Bio Ethanol - Bi-porduct of the sugar processing industry. Just ask Mexico city where every cab runs on the stuff!

Most electrical goods will run on 110 volts anyway, just that would mean we'd be able to buy goods form Europe and the US and use them. That's p**s off the manufacturers since most goods are cheaper outside the UK, and they'd not have the means to stop us. But in any case it's unlikely to happen.

As for Bio's, yes all well and good, but would drive up the cost of food. I don't know if anyone has ever done an analysis of whether there is enough land to grow the necessaries for ethonal and still feed the planet, but it would make good readiing.

[Razor]

It must be true, was on ITN...

Click my sig.

[yorkie_chris]

How come they can put 15% ethanol in fuel without knackering every carbed engine on the road?
IME of methanol burning engines (meths having similar behavior to ethanol, just less drinkable), the mains have been almost double the size in terms of jet cross sectional area.
Surely E85 and similar fuels must run really lean?

[Razor]

There are very few carbed engines left on the road, just a few old cars and us still on the 20th century SV.

[Razor]

NYSE had the highest oil price on Tuesday. $100+
MSN reports we're on the way to £1.50 a litre by the summer.

I'll update this in another 12 months shall I?

[metalmonkey]

I was food shopping today, it did say on the front page of the mail that oill could hit ?1.50/litre before the end of the year, I was like wtf if this going to true then god knows!

I can see the cots of running anything that has petrol in it going out of control, but also if oil carries on gettig more esxpensive there will be serious issues of having enough power to supply enough water, mediceine will go up in price well hell everything will go up like you wouldn't belive!

Well if are gonna hit peak oil in the few years, might was well enjoy our bikes while we can:D

[Razor]

Actually recent figures look like world oil production peaked in may 2005. If we ever get more than 87.5 million barrels a day I'll let you know.
Of course OPEC has recently announced that they will be cutting production.
China is going coal to liquid.

[Razor]

Oil hit $117 a barrel yesterday.

[gettin2dizzy]

It hit $120 last week! I used to drive everywhere about 90, 65 is all I do now; diesel is too expensive I can't justify the extra speed :( The day the motorways slow down to save fuel will be the critical point I imagine

[yorkie_chris]

Is it time to buy lots of shotguns and tinned food yet?

[Razor]

"PEAK Oil. Remember the phrase. Either capped, like this: Peak Oil, or probably soon lower case: peak oil, as it comes into common usage.

Then as sub-editors come to grips with throwing the phrase into single-column headlines: PE, or maybe P-oil, then, finally, as we lose the art of making newsprint (along with the art of reading and writing and concentrate instead on spear-making technology), simply "poil".
The idea behind the phrase is that we have already passed, or are about to pass, peak oil production on Earth. It took us (humans on the planet, I mean) 125 years to chug through the first trillion barrels of leftover dinosaurs and swamps that make up our oil reserves. These reserves were left either 300 million years ago or 5000 years before Jesus played full-forward for the Israelites (depending on whether you take your religion straight or cut with crystal meth).
As China and India come online we will go through the next trillion barrels by either 2030 or next Sunday, again depending on whom you talk to and how recently they got out of economists rehab. By the way, the next trillion barrels also happens to be our last trillion, and I don't see anyone pumping more dinosaur fossils into the Earth's crust.
Within four days of the world realising we are running out of oil there will be savages outside your front door, armed with spears, bent on carrying off your womenfolk.
Your property in the inner city will be worthless, because that is where most of the roaming armed bands will be concentrated.
Well, before all this happens, you will have to relocate to somewhere you can grow your own crops, raise your own swine and tend your own steak. A place you can lay mines, set up claymores, string grenades in trees, and dig spider holes and pits full of punji stakes to stop incoming marauders.
Or so the increasingly hysterical Peak Oil believers would have us believe.
Maybe I've steeped myself too thoroughly in Peak Oil lore, but it has made me think about buying 250 hectares or so well away from any population centre, stocking up the Prius with some canned goods and a bazooka or two, getting a couple of females of breeding age and clearing fields of fire around the house. (Nubile females of sound breeding stock wishing to join my compound can contact me through the paper.)
Now is the time to get out of the cities, thePeak Oil websites say, because the planet is a sick old man with a weak heart, and oil is its blood supply. We are about to lose our blood supply.
You think that's food you're eating? Huh-uh! It's oil. How were the crops it was made from fertilised? Oil. How did it get to you? Oil. What is it wrapped in? Oil (yuck).
Peak Oil is also a huge money spinner, with survivalist websites flogging everything from how to set up a house "off the grid", to catalogues for MREs (meals ready to eat, in the US Army), C-rations, claymores, grenades and assault rifles.
For our own politicians, economists, experts and commentators, the solution for Peak Oil is the same as it is for the water crisis, the housing crisis and the Islamic jihad crisis.
The solution to all these problems is to dramatically boost imports of fiends seething with hatred for Australia and bent on the destruction of our way of life, so they can add to the roaming hordes outside your house come the Peak Oil apocalypse.
(I'll bet you thought the solution was to look for alternative fuels, build more dams, lay out more cities and ease up on the loony intake throttle for a while? What are you, some kind of racist?)
Yes, Peak Oil is a problem. Don't believe me? Cut out this column and use it to make a fire to keep you warm after the Peak Oil apocalypse.
I'll be safely ensconced in my secret compound, where my skills at stringing words together and making headlines fit will be secondary to my skills at riding, shooting, setting up claymores, gunning down marauders ("Darling, have you seen my eyepatch?") brewing my own beer and repopulating the planet (it's dark and lonely work, but somebody's got to do it).
The first breeding pair of females I sent for through my survivalist website have just arrived, so I've got to go.
I'd love to tell you where my secret compound is, but I'm afraid you just might become part of a roaming band in four days' time, in which case, go get your own females."

SOURCE (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23425362-23375,00.html)

[Razor]

http://www.gpsa.co.za/Jokes/Zimbabwe/p_queue2.jpg

[metalmonkey]

Well so whats the new info, how long have we got before it goes? Or all hell breaks lose......

As other said how long we go to to get ready....might be time to sort out some weapons of some kind. Though first sigh of trouable I'll be out of the city into the country.

Now might be a good time to start the county or the org and make good our escpae from here!

[yorkie_chris]

Crossbows are good if you have ...er.. complications getting shotgun license... ;-)

[MavUK]

would you rather eat or drive?
That's a no brainer - and look an the bright side the less you eat, the less you weigh. The less you weigh the faster your SV and the less fuel you use.

[gettin2dizzy]

Crossbows are good if you have ...er.. complications getting shotgun license... ;-)
I actually looked at that yesterday ;) It's strangely easy to do!

[markmoto]

Crossbows are good if you have ...er.. complications getting shotgun license... ;-)

Cross bows are great ;)

[yorkie_chris]

I actually looked at that yesterday ;) It's strangely easy to do!

If you've a clean record then yeah

[gettin2dizzy]

If you've a clean record then yeah
but you need to prove suitable gun experience. I'm alright at call of duty if that counts? ;)

+I've no idea where I'd get one and how much they cost

[Razor]

if you haven't offended in the last 3 years you'll probably get a shotgun certificate.
Application forms available online if you want.

[thedonal]

Time to dust off those Mad Max movies and start studying, methinks.

[yorkie_chris]

Quite hard to find a ford falcon coupe over here mate ;-)

[markmoto]

Time to dust off those Mad Max movies and start studying, methinks.

:D;) sorted

[Razor]

I always wondered, if fuel was so scarce why was he driving a super charged V8?

Maybe because in the flicks a C90 just isn't cool?

[yorkie_chris]

Those sound awesome though...


(But I was going to post up the same thing :-P)

[blue curvy jester]

bio ethanol and bio diesel will be made from algae in the next 10yrs ( more enegry per gramm than corn etc)

and nuclear power will power homes ( fast breeders huge stocks) and far safer than coal extraction (ask anyone in a former coal mining area of the uk )

If needed we can gassify the remaining coal fields in the uk for coal gas if needed if people are that botherdd about 30,000 yrs stock

[yorkie_chris]

Awwww I was looking forward to living in a post-apocalyptic anarchist warzone...

These guys looked like a good laugh
http://www.madmaxmovies.com/cast/MadMax/Bikers/ChevyChase.JPG

[Razor]

You'll be staying at home no matter what. End of cheap flights (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/apr/29/theairlineindustry.oil)

[Razor]

Oil production article (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/28/business/worldbusiness/28oil-WEB.html?_r=3&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin)

As oil prices soared to record levels in recent years, basic economics suggested that consumption would fall and supply would rise as producers opened the taps to pump more.
But as prices flirt with $120 a barrel, many energy specialists are becoming worried that neither seems to be happening. Higher prices have done little to attract new production or to suppress global demand, and the resulting mismatch has sent oil prices spiraling upward.
“According to normal economic theory, and the history of oil, rising prices have two major effects,” said Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized countries. “They reduce demand and they induce oil supplies. Not this time.”

[yorkie_chris]

So either the A-rabs are keeping production level to keep prices high, or they know they've hit peak so aren't increasing to maintain the supply for as long as possible? Or should I stick to spanners and stuff rather than economics? :-P

[gettin2dizzy]

So either the A-rabs are keeping production level to keep prices high, or they know they've hit peak so aren't increasing to maintain the supply for as long as possible? Or should I stick to spanners and stuff rather than economics? :-P:thumbsup: I reckon they hit it a long long time ago.

[Razor]

When this wave of higher oil prices subsides, is it going to be business as usual? After the oil shocks of the 1970s and early 1980s, the oil price came back down and we went pretty much back to our bad old ways.
But this time it feels different. It is true that all the attitudes that characterised previous surges in the oil price are evident now. There is the resentment against the oil companies at their profits. There is the cockiness of Opec, with its president warning on Monday that the price might go to $200 a barrel. And there are the exhortations to conservation, but without much follow-up.


Full article (http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-we-will-never-have-cheap-oil-again-818008.html)

[gettin2dizzy]

Ok, so I've filled up each sunday for three weeks:
119.9 / litre diesel - Cardiff
123.9 / litre diesel - West Cardiff
132.9 / litre diesel - A1 near Newcastle

9p in a week?!
?65 to ?72 for a tank of fuel in a fortnight?!
Time for a 125?

[Razor]

Running on empty? Fears over oil supply move into the mainstream

(http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5c9d05aa-25ca-11dd-b510-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1)

[adw]

Interesting reading. I was speaking with my missus last night because she see patients in there own homes. Her fuel allowance is covering her comfortably right now but when i worked out what it would cost her 1.50 per litre things got very tight. Her allowance includes increased servicing frequency, fuel, tyres etc. She would be losing money by working which is worrying.

When he mentions that he wants to hold onto oil for his peoples future a similiar thing is happening with gas. That's due to run out in 65 years. (I'll be 90 so not too worried!) But Gas and oil rich nations are discovering their commodities are precious and rather than exporting them are keeping them for their people. We should of done the same with the north sea but greed got in the way.

Everyones methods for power, transport etc will have to change. We can't go on devouring gas and oil like this. It annoys me cos i like riding my SV and do need a car. But there will come a time where i only use the bike for pleasure, do away with a car and ride a pushbike. Tax will decrease for the goverment so they'll tax more in other areas. cycling tax, breathing tax, farting tax you name it! :p

God I hate threads like this, make me thoroughly miserable! ;)