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Razor
14-06-07, 06:53 PM
http://www.independent.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00249/p1-140607_249115a.jpg

Razor
14-06-07, 06:54 PM
Read the article here (http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/article2656034.ece)

Wideboy
14-06-07, 07:02 PM
oh noes!

someone plz invent something better than petrol for the SV :smt089

Rich
14-06-07, 07:04 PM
All scare tactics if you ask me, same with global warming.

Flamin_Squirrel
14-06-07, 07:10 PM
It won't 'run out' anyway, it'll just get more expensive.

Rich
14-06-07, 07:13 PM
It won't 'run out' anyway, it'll just get more expensive.

Yeh the government are just trying to justify the high fuel tax!!! b@stards!!!!

Rich
14-06-07, 07:19 PM
I make that 1070 billion barrels left, thats plenty for me wheres your lots? :lol:

Razor
14-06-07, 07:22 PM
That might be true but the Saudis have been lying about their reserves for years.

neio79
14-06-07, 07:39 PM
what about the known reserves under the Arctic/ Antarctic and the Falklands?? Not allowed to drill their yet but i am sure there is Oil undr them.

Wasnt that part of the reason why Britain held onto them so strongly??

Biker Biggles
14-06-07, 07:42 PM
The only reason we have not vigorously looked for alternative energy sources is because oil has been cheap and plentiful.If and when that changes we will find alternatives.Wind wave,tidal,hydro,nuclear,solar,geothermal and others are all viable given the right sort of investment and R&D.

Wideboy
14-06-07, 07:46 PM
cant drill the Falklands disrespectfully for the war

Rich
14-06-07, 07:47 PM
cant drill the Falklands disrespectfully for the war

Are you sure thats going to stop them in 100-200 years time, i dought it!!!

sinbad
14-06-07, 07:52 PM
It won't 'run out' anyway, it'll just get more expensive.
Ever? :)

Of course we all know it is running out, and I fully hope we do something to prepare for when the demand far outstrips supply.
It's the airlines that will have the real problems, or at least the passengers will, since there's no alternative to the current aviation fuel.

Still, I'm sure the oil companies won't complain if these reports drive the price of a barrel up a few percent.

tigersaw
14-06-07, 07:53 PM
Hmm, I remember the same thing in the 1970's. That never came true either.

Razor
14-06-07, 08:52 PM
Hmm, I remember the same thing in the 1970's. That never came true either.

Good point, old git :rolleyes:

All that happened there was for a short period of time demand outstripped supply. Add that in with the OPEC embargo and that was an oil shock.
In the 80's there was actually a glut of oil on the market, so the shrill voices that claimed the oil was running out were ridiculed.

The article is a little scaremongerish, the oil won't run out but the peak of production will have passed and oil demand will exceed supply.

keithd
14-06-07, 08:53 PM
and isnt north sea gas going to run out in 1988?

Well Oiled
14-06-07, 09:00 PM
Oil WILL run out. The main problem is the exponential rise in demand from developing countries, especially China and India. It's not the same as it was in the seventies. At that time reserves were being depleted but new sources were being found just as fast. That's not the case any more.

In a few decades burning oil for leisure (like a lot of our motorcycling) will just not be an option. No, I don't like it either but that's how it is.

neio79
14-06-07, 09:03 PM
looks like we should all buy deisel then, make the fuel go further.

Razor
14-06-07, 09:04 PM
and isnt north sea gas going to run out in 1988?

The UK is an importer of gas.

tigersaw
14-06-07, 09:13 PM
Well I know a little bit about oil reserves, since my best buddy is a senior geologist for BP. The Independents' estimate for the reserves in Algeria is way way off the mark. If thats the case, then the whole article cannot really be given any credibility.

keithd
14-06-07, 09:40 PM
The UK is an importer of gas.

from the north sealanders?

Razor
14-06-07, 09:43 PM
" As Dr Campbell explains: "When I was the boss of an oil company I would never tell the truth. It's not part of the game." "

Oil companies are not going to admit anything about oil depletion, imagine what their stock prices would do. The rub is, nobody connected with an oil company will openly admit there is an issue... Until they retire and then they join the ever increasing group of ex-geologists that are trying to warn people about an impending crisis.

Razor
14-06-07, 09:44 PM
from the north sealanders?

No GAZPROM

mac99
14-06-07, 10:08 PM
I bought and read this (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Last-Oil-Shock-Extinction-Petroleum/dp/0719564239/)book:

http://ec1.images-amazon.com/images/I/41bz83gVXeL._AA240_.jpg

On Razor's instructions the last time this was raised.

Good book. The only bit of wiggle room that I saw in his argument was in the estimates of Saudi Reserves. Yes they've been lying, but this really is a big unknown, and so assuming the worst of the plausible scenarios may not be justified. Other than than it has a good explanation of the overall situation.

As a few people have said, it's not running out that's the issue, it's peaking of production, which happens when reserves are only HALF used up. Plenty of very good arguments why this will likely be in the region of 2020 or a bit earlier. Saying "you said this before and you were wrong !!!111! lol " isn't really a valid counter argument.


Development of replacement alternative energy sources can't happen over night, simply because oil is such a fantastically good concentrated cheap source of energy. The entire modern global economy is predicated upon cheap oil, and when supply can no longer match the demand that has been built up, the price won't gently rise, it'll shoot up. The stuff is essential. Imagine the price of food if there's only enough for 95% of the population. It wouldn't just be 5% higher than normal. Same for oil, everyone needs it.

History is has plenty of examples of failed civilisations that were dependent on mining a finite resource.

Razor
14-06-07, 10:16 PM
Mac, I'm stunned. Thank you :)

Ceri JC
14-06-07, 10:47 PM
As others have said, oil won't run out overnight. It'll get gradually more expensive (far quicker than inflation), this running out (which will occur over years, if not decades) will act as a transition period to alternatives. It's not like fuel prices will quadruple overnight or anything drastic like that.

As fuel runs out, new engines will get dramatically more efficient in their final few years (as the emphasis switches from performance to economy) and people will switch to smaller cars/bikes. Similarly, the rate of development of and introduction of the alternatives will be inversely proportional to the amount of fossil fuel remaining.

That's all assuming it's actually running out at all... there are some scientists who don't believe it is.

Razor
14-06-07, 11:07 PM
I personally believe that peak of world oil production is within the next 3 years. After which the decline will set in. I'd love to say that it will be a peaceful transition to alternatives, but I doubt that very much.

By 2020 the world will be a much different place.

keithd
15-06-07, 07:07 AM
" As Dr Campbell explains: "When I was the boss of an oil company I would never tell the truth. It's not part of the game." "

Oil companies are not going to admit anything about oil depletion, imagine what their stock prices would do. The rub is, nobody connected with an oil company will openly admit there is an issue... Until they retire and then they join the ever increasing group of ex-geologists that are trying to warn people about an impending crisis.

ok playing devils advocate....

why is it only retired employees who announce this impending doom? why no ex employees with a grudge? nobody who's been fired for whatever reason? nobody made redundant due to ambiguous cutbacks? have any of these guys come forward to inform us of these shortages?

dementia can be a cruel mistress...;)

grh1904
15-06-07, 08:59 AM
A few people have mentioned the year 2020, which is only 13 years away. I personally have plans in place to retire on a lovely ex-Police officers pension in 17 years, and had intended to spend my retirement at a very fast pace, i.e. riding my SV, (or whatever incarnation there is of it in 17 years time).

I'm now not convinced that we will even have MOTORbikes when I retire. The name comes from a bike having an internal combustion engine (MOTOR) in it, but by then we will probably all be on some kind of futuristic battery powered scooter type thing, that does about 100 miles a day, at, wait for it,,,, 30mph. It'll probably get plugged into the electric at home (which comes from hydro/nuclear/wind power stations and we charge it up overnight at about £100.00 per charge !!!!!!!!!, so when we all took the P*SS out of Sir Clive Sinclair and his C5 contraption in the eighties, he probably sat back and thought, we'll see who's laughing in about 35 years time ya tw*ts.

So, all that pointless crap above brings me onto my point, (there is one you ask ???????), in the mean time, while there is oil, and I can still afford to buy petrol, (just), I intend to get out on my SV as often as I can and wring the f**kers neck at every opportunity.:smt112

Let's enjoy it while we've still got it.

Ping
15-06-07, 09:11 AM
Oil WILL run out. The main problem is the exponential rise in demand from developing countries, especially China and India. It's not the same as it was in the seventies. At that time reserves were being depleted but new sources were being found just as fast. That's not the case any more.

In a few decades burning oil for leisure (like a lot of our motorcycling) will just not be an option. No, I don't like it either but that's how it is.

Will you change your name when it happens? :cyclopsani:

Baph
15-06-07, 09:30 AM
So, all that pointless crap above brings me onto my point, (there is one you ask ???????), in the mean time, while there is oil, and I can still afford to buy petrol, (just), I intend to get out on my SV as often as I can and wring the f**kers neck at every opportunity.:smt112

That sounds like a plan.

By the time the oil supplies run out, the oil companies will of invested enough money in alternative and decent power sources (such as the Hydrogen bike that was in the news not so long ago - pump enough money into that, and you'd be on to a winner).

Let me ask you all a question: Pretend you're the boss of a major oil company, and you won't be out of that position for a good 30 years. You know what's happening to the oil, but you don't want your shareholders to know. Do you just sit on your hands & hope it'll all work out, or do you take the business initiative to do something about it and lead the market?

I rest my case. UKPIA will have to change it's name, but it'll still be the biggest association (in terms of revanue and volume of sales) in the UK, regardless of the state of oil.

Steve H
15-06-07, 09:40 AM
what about the known reserves under the Arctic/ Antarctic and the Falklands?? Not allowed to drill their yet but i am sure there is Oil undr them.

Wasnt that part of the reason why Britain held onto them so strongly??

Go to war over the 'black stuff'? Surely that never happens. :rolleyes:



oh, and I don't mean Guiness!

Flamin_Squirrel
15-06-07, 09:47 AM
As oil 'runs out' from current oil fields, the price will rise, but that'll mean it'll become economically viable to extract it from shale, which is more expensive to do. This means although the price has gone up, you've now got a larger reserve being access which should slow down the price increase.

Razor
15-06-07, 10:25 AM
As oil 'runs out' from current oil fields, the price will rise, but that'll mean it'll become economically viable to extract it from shale, which is more expensive to do. This means although the price has gone up, you've now got a larger reserve being access which should slow down the price increase.

You mean tar sands like in Alberta Canada. It's a mining operation, they scoop up the sand and then cook it off to release the oil.
How do they cook it?
Natural gas.
What's just peaked in Alberta?
Natural gas production...

The use of one fossil fuel to extract another will become unsustainable. The tar sands project's budget is already way beyond original estimates and tar sands are easier to extract than shale.

Ping
15-06-07, 10:44 AM
You mean tar sands like in Alberta Canada. It's a mining operation, they scoop up the sand and then cook it off to release the oil.
How do they cook it?
Natural gas.
What's just peaked in Alberta?
Natural gas production...

The use of one fossil fuel to extract another will become unsustainable. The tar sands project's budget is already way beyond original estimates and tar sands are easier to extract than shale.

*sighs* My home province... When I were a lass these were all tar sands...

Mousetrapper
15-06-07, 11:46 AM
Actually quite a scary thing this 'Peak Oil'. Surprisingly for me I've been looking into it for a few day before this came out.

The big issue is not being able to ride the bike but the economic impact of there being a greater demand than supply.

In the 70s Oil Crisis in the wake of the Iranian Revelution there was only around a 5% shortfall but the price doubled overnight, then OPEC increased production and the price went down.

So what would happen if production could not be increased to demand (remembering that China and India have a real thing for cars at the moment).

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/graph_201_10_4_2006.jpg

The plateau is the period where the cost of oil increases so recovering the harder to get reserves becomes viable (deep sea, small pockets, tar sands).

This can only last for a while.

Then comes the cliff, not so much no more fuel but no more cheap fuel (although at this point it will be a pretty penny anyway).

The real kicker is that a substantial area of food producing land is only able to produce food because of the cheap oil (pumping water, pesticides, fertilizers, fuel for the machinery etc.).

Then if it all goes this wrong we far exceed the carrying capacity and a dieoff occurs, unless something else happens first.

Below are a few links to make you thinks.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
http://www.peakoilandhumanity.com/initial_page_english.htm
http://www.dieoff.org/ - Poor quality graph but lots of other depressing links!

To be honest there isn't really a lot that can be done, keep riding!

Razor
15-06-07, 11:53 AM
Actually quite a scary thing this 'Peak Oil'. Surprisingly for me I've been looking into it for a few day before this came out.


I've been looking into it for a few months. My first thread (http://forums.sv650.org/showthread.php?t=84456) about it was in February.

There is something that can be done, but it would take everyone working together and it would mean economic hardship for all of us.

keithd
15-06-07, 01:10 PM
There is something that can be done, but it would take everyone working together and it would mean economic hardship for all of us.

so nothing will happen then....

Razor
15-06-07, 01:12 PM
Exactly. :(

Mousetrapper
15-06-07, 01:45 PM
Ah, yes so it was - I haven't been around that long. I'll be having a look at some of those links from Feb.

slark01
15-06-07, 02:07 PM
Not checked every post on this thread so forgive me if someone else has said something similiar.
What most people forget about oil is that a vast amount of it is not used as fuel but as part of manufacturing items. Look around your home and ask yourself how many items are made from oil. Your bike doesn't just run on the black stuff; but your tyres, pipes, wire covers, etc are also made from it.
It's ok to say we can find alternative fuel source, but what about making items that we use every day.
The planet is running out of oil and we all will suffer for it, but it is our future generations that will suffer the most if we cannot find a way of creating things without the use of oil as well as finding an alternative power source.
What makes me laugh ( sadly ) is that this is very old news, but only now are the general public actually discussing it ( nevermind the governments and scientists ).
Oh and one more thing:- a couple of boffins worked out the maths of how much oil was left in the north sea and it wasn't looking good. The government laughed at them, now the government are worried that those boffins are right.

Razor
15-06-07, 02:58 PM
The North Sea oil field passed peak production in 1999 so I hope those weren't recent boffins.

Well Oiled
15-06-07, 03:48 PM
Will you change your name when it happens? :cyclopsani:

Not as long as there's enough bio-ethanol left to fill my tank. Amber coloured 5% solution or red coloured 13% solution. Either will do to keep me "Well Oiled". :)

slark01
15-06-07, 04:23 PM
The North Sea oil field passed peak production in 1999 so I hope those weren't recent boffins.

No, the warning was given in the early 80's.
America has been warned since the 70's and yet they still have not changed the way they live. Cannot wait to see what happens over there, when the general public start to feel the effects of having reduced oil. I personally think that it will be more chaotic than over here.

Razor
15-06-07, 10:29 PM
I was taking the ****, you haven't read the whole thread so how were you to know.

The whole thing actually started with M.K Hubbert in 1954. He warned America then. In 1970 he warned the whole world. With globalisation the world is more connected than ever.

$tevo
16-06-07, 10:10 AM
"Colorado and Utah have as much oil as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria, Kuwait, Libya, Angola, Algeria, Indonesia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates combined. " it says here...


http://www.sltrib.com/business/ci_6012082

Razor
16-06-07, 03:19 PM
Oil from shale is still a huge waste of energy. They have to mine the stuff and then convert it to oil. It's not as cheap as drilling and then pumping the stuff out. These operations produce vast amounts of waste water and air pollution, they consume almost as much energy to manufacture as comes from the resulting fuels.

The problem for us normal folk isn't the end of oil, it's the end of cheap oil.
The wealthy will still have their fortunes to offset most financial difficulties that will result, the rest of us, well, only time will tell...

$tevo
16-06-07, 04:36 PM
Ah, but...

"The breakthrough is that now the oil companies have a way of getting this oil out of the ground without the massive energy and manpower costs that killed these projects in the 1970s," said Pete Stark, an analyst at IHS Inc., an Englewood, Colorado, research firm. "All the shale rocks in the world are going to be revisited now to see how much oil they contain."

Razor
16-06-07, 06:13 PM
Shell are backing out of oil shale (http://www.denverpost.com/ci_6155257?source=rss)
Cost implications.

Razor
08-12-07, 03:09 PM
$100 dollah oil y'all !

tigersaw
08-12-07, 03:54 PM
$100 dollah oil y'all !


Back to december 1979 prices then

Razor
08-12-07, 04:06 PM
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Oil/Oil_inflation_chart_files/Oil%20Prices_2492_image001.gif

Razor
08-12-07, 04:09 PM
Nice graph this, not updated to show the climb to $98 dollars a barrel but you can clearly see the price rise after the oil was depleted in the USA. The spike around the first gulf war and then the rapid rise in prices from 2000 onwards. It's not coming down and the inflationary adjusted 1979 spike will be passed soon.

chazzyb
08-12-07, 10:07 PM
looks like we should all buy deisel then, make the fuel go further.

Let us know how you get on with it in your SV. :p

gettin2dizzy
09-12-07, 01:53 PM
$100 dollah oil y'all !

That's about £4 isn't it?

wyrdness
09-12-07, 02:51 PM
Here's some better news. The government have said that they want to build enough off-shore wind farms to power all UK homes by 2020.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7135299.stm