Quite Sobering
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15975564

Some road death stats, check out the motorbike section!

Re: Quite Sobering
 

More bikers die on a weekend?
Duh! its when most of us ride them the most!

Re: Quite Sobering
 

that figure is per billion miles. How many billion miles do the majority of bikers ride?! Lorrys, cars and vans are more likely to be hitting that figure and there are a lot more of them which is why the figure is lower.
Note the trend most accidents occur at rush hour-when there are lots of other vehicles around, or at weekends-again when lots of other vehicles are around.

Re: Quite Sobering
 

There are some very dubious "correlations"made in that article most of which are basic common sense like rush hour figures and population density.No **** Sherlock.Then there is the one about van and lorry drivers involved in crashes being likely to have motoring convictions.Id think those who drive millions of miles would be more likely to have fallen foul of some legal nicety or other than average too.Nice survey full of non results really.

Re: Quite Sobering
 

The map is interesting. I recognize bad junctions, dodgy corners that I ride.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15975720

Re: Quite Sobering
 

So to be assured of dying on a motorbike I have to ride 602,773 miles.

And I should be worried? :-)

C

Re: Quite Sobering
 

No no no
You need to put those numbers in the right perspective (which is what's lacking from the article). Here's how I see it:

Every billion miles traveled, 1659 bikers are killed. But these are from the estimated 1.1-1.2million (http://www.motorcycle.co.uk/Referenc...tatistics.aspx) bikers in the uk.

So, if you travel a billion miles, you will stand a 1659 / 1150000 = 0.00144260869565217391304347826087 chance of being killed on a motorbike (about 1 in 693).

So how do we compute some fun numbers?

Well, first we need to solve a couple of equations.

Let's first find out what is the chance of being killed riding through the year.

Suppose you do about 20k miles on average every year. Suppose the probability of being killed in one year is p.

Then the probability of Not being killed is (1 - p). This would mean that the chance of not being killed in k years
is (1 - p)^k. Since you do 20k miles/year, then you need 50000 years to travel 1billion miles (that's iff 1billion = 10^9, or 1000million).
So, (1-p)^50000 = 692/693. This implies that 1 - p = 0.99999997111912897237903989048498.

Then this would imply that, if you travel 20k miles per year, you stand a chance of (aprox) 1 in 34624994.

Yep, about 1 in 34million.

Observe that you need to spend quite some time riding to get some decent chances of being killed. Even if you were to ride
for 50000 years 20k miles per year, you would still only stand 1:693 chances of being killed.

I'd say focus on the numpties and stop worrying that you're gonna die if you so much as touch that motorbike.
In fact, if you wanna seriously worry about dying, here's some pie charts for your convenience :

http://www.livescience.com/3780-odds-dying.html

Re: Quite Sobering
 

Probability of death = 1.
Don't be soft, ride the bike :)


It's getting off the bugger that's dangerous...

Re: Quite Sobering
 

Brilliant!!!!!:D:D:D:D:D

Re: Quite Sobering
 

1659 KSI's not deaths.

This is every bike accident in the UK for the last 10 years, compared against an estimate of the number of miles travelled by every biker in the UK for the last 10 years, used to create a KSI figure per billion miles travelled.

Bikes travel a billion miles they have 1659 KSI's, if they travel 5 billion they have 8295 KSI's

Cars travel a billion miles they have 27 KSI's, if they travel 5 billion they have 135 KSI's

The odds are still pretty low, and even lower in terms of the chance of dying, but the number of miles an average biker travels, or the fact there are more cars than bikes doing more miles, does absolutely nothing to change the statistic. It is measured as an average over a fixed number of miles, the same number for both types of vehicle.