Quote:
Originally Posted by embee
Well, there are different reports it would appear. The BMJ, a reasonably reputable publication, would suggest different numbers (published 11th Dec 2020) https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826
If as shown the Pfizer vaccine is only 52% effective after the first dose and 95% after the second, it would seem somewhat cavalier to suggest a significant delay of administering the second dose beyond the originally recommended 21days. I'm not aware that Pfizer have condoned the extension yet.
The USA authority CDC are still specifying an interval of 21days +/-4 days between doses (as of 30th Dec) https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-1...derations.html
I'm suspicious of the vaccination rates being bandied about. If as suggested it ramps up to 2m per week but the interval is extended to 12 weeks, which conveniently takes us pretty much to Easter to achieve the 20million highest priority subjects which is the Government gateway claim currently being offered, then the second doses would have to start being administered at the same 2m/week rate after that. If the total rate hasn't increased substantially by then (and I doubt it will, but we'll see), then there will be no further NEW recipients for a further 10 weeks until all the second doses are completed. I think there'll be a class1 smoke and mirrors exercise at the briefings to hide the reality ............. until it's too late. I hope as usual that I'm wrong. If I'm not wrong, I can look forward to getting a vaccine sometime late summer. |
Some very good points well made.
Statistics are always a bit dodgy, especially when they involve something as unreliable and unpredictable as medicine......
Referring just to the paper published in the BMJ as Embee has shared it here...
One of the biggest issues raised around the efficacy of the vaccine after just the one dose was just how "sterile" were the subject group. Finding 43k people to take part in the study who had all been self isolating for two weeks would have been impossible (especially if you wanted the group to be representative of a population with regard to age/sex/ethnic background etc...) so you have to factor in that a percentage of those receiving the first dose may have already been infected, or indeed become infected post vaccination and before they had developed immunity. Obviously by the time you come to administer the second booster dose your subject group will be far less likely to already been carrying a Covid infection (on account of the first dose) so you need to consider this when analysing results......
What is particularly important is the instance of serious Covid cases after just the first dose. There were thirty nine cases of Covid within the subject group (some 21,700 people) with only one of these being classified as serious. In the similar sized placebo group there were 82 cases of Covid (hence the 52% efficacy figure) but of these nine were classified as serious. In essence this is saying that after a single dose you are half as likely to catch Covid but nine times less likely to develop serious symptoms.
Given that it is those with serious symptoms that are going to bring the NHS to it's knees (or die......) I can still see why they are driving administering just the single dose.