I'm waiting to see what Madrid does if the promised fresh elections give a majority to the independence party. There are some interesting possibilities:
- Big majority for remainers - independence party disputes results (I would see this as rather suspect too) and it all descends into a decade of political strife.
- Small majority for remainers - great news for Madrid, politically this is their ideal result and it could happen.
- Small majority for independence party - IMO the most likely result. Not a great basis for pushing on with independence, but Madrid can 'compromise' and devolve a few more powers to the region or make a fight of it claiming that it's looking after the interests of the other forty-something percent of the population.
- Big majority for independence party - much more likely after heavy handed police actions. This is the real kicker, what does Madrid do if the Catalans re-elect Puigdemont with a clear mandate??
If I were a wily Spanish politician I'd be preparing to discuss the details of independence, with a view to tying them up in at least a decade of negotiations...
Just my thoughts,
Keith