NHS Reported Covid 19 Deaths

[DJ123]

Below is a link to the NHS reported figures (For England) on Covid 19 deaths.

Is it just me or does it look not as dramatic as what the News outlets seem to be reporting. . . . . ?

I'll try and update this post with that the news outlets report daily to see what the correlation is of the overinflated figure - are they also including 'normal' deaths?

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...DL1eOELW8BpOhI

[Craig380]

Mpst of the news outlets go with the headline UK-wide figure, before breaking it down by country. In this piece from yesterday's Guardian, they mention the same total of 3,939 deaths in England that yesterday's NHS England data does: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...navirus-deaths

What is really striking to me is the testing / infected ratio. Most (not all, but most) people who have been tested are those who have been admitted to hospital with Covid-19 symptome, or underlying conditions that could be exacerbated by Covid-19. The total number of people in the UK tested since the outbreak began was 183,190 yesterday, with 41,903 testing positive. In other works, over 77% were not infected.

I am not posting this to trivialise Covid-19, but Public Health England estimates that on average, 17,000 people have died from seasonal 'flu every year in England alone between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19.

[DJ123]

Originally Posted by Craig380

Mpst of the news outlets go with the headline UK-wide figure, before breaking it down by country. In this piece from yesterday's Guardian, they mention the same total of 3,939 deaths in England that yesterday's NHS England data does: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...navirus-deaths

What is really striking to me is the testing / infected ratio. Most (not all, but most) people who have been tested are those who have been admitted to hospital with Covid-19 symptome, or underlying conditions that could be exacerbated by Covid-19. The total number of people in the UK tested since the outbreak began was 183,190 yesterday, with 41,903 testing positive. In other works, over 77% were not infected.

I am not posting this to trivialise Covid-19, but Public Health England estimates that on average, 17,000 people have died from seasonal 'flu every year in England alone between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19.

I agree with you, that the reporting of it is making it sound worse than it is, again not to trivialise it.
There is a 'whiff' of management by fear in the way it is presented.
The Office of National Statistics has all the data for deaths in previous years. I am waiting for the March figures to be updated for 2020 to see how they compare to 2019 - this will give a good YoY comparison of the impact this is actually having above the 'average' death rate.

[Kenzie]

This is the website I have been keeping an eye on.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[DJ123]

IIRC the estimated mortality rate was 5% for this, and so far the global statistics reflect that (if the information used is as accurate as can be). The UK's is currently higher due to the small amount of tests performed.

[Craig380]

That's 5% related to known infections - and although over 77% of people tested in the UK were negative for Covid-19, the actual number of infections out in the wider community is likely to be anywhere between 5x and 10x the known number.

The latest data from China shows that 80% of people who tested positive for Covid-19 were asymptomatic - i.e. no symptoms at all, or just feeling a little under the weather, but no fever etc.

Based on this, it's reckoned that Covid-19 has been around for several months longer than previously thought: but no-one was looking for it, and those that did present symptoms were presumed to have a 'normal' flu infection.

[quinnj3]

In some ways I agree with the figures being somewhat inflated. I read an article on bbc news website which basically said the recorded Covid 19 deaths included everyone who died that tested positive for the virus. Not all died as a direct result of being infected. From what I took from the article it appears a large percentage of deaths would have likely occurred without the virus anyway.

While these figures only show the deaths, with this virus in particular, a percentage of people will experience severe symptoms that requires hospital treatment. More so than the flu. To avoid overwhelming the health service and causing normally preventable deaths from occurring the government is trying to control the spread so to protect the really vulnerable and manage the rate of admissions to hospital.

I’m not an expert, I’m not in anyway medically trained but this is my view on the subject.

This is a virus that people can build immunity to after infection. If the government locked down completely we would expect waves of infection one after the other and actually prolong the outbreak. If they don’t put in control measures many people will needlessly die but the population will become immune quickly to this strain and it shouldn’t cause a problem again. In my opinion a balance must be struck to allow the virus into the community in a controlled way so the least vulnerable build immunity. If there are enough people immune to the virus then it can no longer spread as aggressively as it has been and eventually fade away.

My two pence!


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[Grant66]

Originally Posted by quinnj3

This is a virus that people can build immunity to after infection.

Has that been proved?

There have been reports of reinfection & that there are, at least, 8 separate strains of this particular virus.

You're immune to the particular strain of the common cold you caught before, that doesn't stop you catching a cold again (common cold also being a coronovirus).

Not trying to scaremonger but surely the Tories wouldn't be damaging the economy with the lockdown unless the consequences of not doing it were a lot worse.


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[daktulos]

Originally Posted by Grant66

(common cold also being a coronovirus)

<pedant>one possible cause of the common cold is a coronavirus</pedant>

I do agree that nothing is known for sure yet, though.

[DJ123]

The Statistics below are from the ONS (note does not include Scotland or NI; reported below)

England & Wales Figures
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to March 27th:
150,057
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
647

Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
153,868

Difference:
-3,811 (less deaths in 2020)

Main points from latest release

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 27 March 2020 (Week 13) was 11,141; this represents an increase of 496 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 12) and 1,011 more than the five-year average.
A total of 150,047 deaths were registered in England and Wales between 28 December 2019 and 27 March 2020 (year to date), and of these, 647 involved the coronavirus (COVID-19) (0.4%); including deaths that occurred up to 27 March but were registered up to 1 April, the number involving COVID-19 was 1,639.
For deaths that occurred up to 27 March, there were 1,568 deaths in England registered by 1 April involving COVID-19 compared with 1,649 deaths reported by NHS England for the same period in a newly published dataset.
Of the deaths registered in Week 13, 539 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 4.8% of all deaths; this compared with 103 (1.0% of all deaths) in Week 12.
This is slightly lower than the figures reported by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) for Week 13 (739) as it takes time for deaths to be reported and included in Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures.
Of deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 13, 92.9% (501 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes.
Please note, where Easter falls in previous years will have an impact on the five-year average used for comparison.
Notes

The table includes number of deaths for which the underlying cause was coded to respiratory diseases as defined in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems Tenth Revision (ICD-10), as well as age group, sex and by area of usual residence.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nglandandwales

The next update is due on 14th April. I'll upload once this figure comes out as the past week has been one of the heavier reported ones for Covid related deaths.

Scotland figures:
Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to March 30th:
17,553
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
354

Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
17,473

Difference:
80 (increased)

As at 5th April , there have been a total of 354 deaths registered in Scotland where the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate. The first mention of COVID-19 in a registered death certificate was the week beginning 16th March 2020.
Of the total number of deaths registered in week 14 (30 March – 5 April), there were 282 where COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate (16.2% of the total) an increase of 220 from the previous week (23 – 29 March).
Over 60% of all deaths involving COVID-19 were of people aged 75 or over.
This number is different from the count of deaths published daily on the gov.scot website, because the latter is based on deaths of those who have tested positive for COVID-19 whereas these figures include all deaths where COVID-19 (included suspected cases) was mentioned on the death certificate

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats

NI Figures

Total deaths in 2020 so far (Up to April 3rd):
4,386
Total deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the Death Certificate:
65

Total avg deaths from the past 5 years:
4,509

Difference:
123 (less)

https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths