GM IV Idle banter and turn me on thread

Originally Posted by -Ralph-

Central Scotland cannot predict weather more than 4 hours in advance. That came straight from the lips of a Scottish meteorologist!

Maybe he/she needs some retraining because they've been pretty accurate with the forecasts 2-3 days in advance. On Sunday they said it would **** with rain all day on Tuesday and that's exactly what happened. Never seen rain like it.

Originally Posted by stuartyboy

Maybe he/she needs some retraining because they've been pretty accurate with the forecasts 2-3 days in advance. On Sunday they said it would **** with rain all day on Tuesday and that's exactly what happened. Never seen rain like it.

A weather forecast, which on an island (with the Scottish Central belt being it's narrowest part East to West) where various developing weather systems are over water at the time when they are being predicted, and may be converging with each other by the time they hit land, is a best guess based upon probabilities and meteorological predictions. A certain meteorologist was the correct in that guess for last Tuesday and last Sunday, therefore another meteorologist needs retraining?

Originally Posted by -Ralph-

A weather forecast, which on an island where various developing weather systems are over water at the time when they are being predicted, and may be converging with each other by the time they hit land, is a best guess based upon probabilities and meteorological predictions. A certain meteorologist was the correct in that guess for last Tuesday and last Sunday, therefore another meteorologist needs retraining?

This 4 hour accuracy thing has been banded about for years and quashed for years. All the relevant science, facts and data are with the met office, who are transparent and have targets by the government. If you understand the science and do some research, you'll learn that they can predict regional forecasts with high accuracy up to 3 days in advance. Current measurement parameters extend to 48 hours ( Read the 2nd last paragraph about guessing ).

In short, the met office have been pretty spot on with their 1-3 day forecats for the past two weeks.

Originally Posted by stuartyboy

This 4 hour accuracy thing has been banded about for years and quashed for years. All the relevant science, facts and data are with the met office, who are transparent and have targets by the government. If you understand the science and do some research, you'll learn that they can predict regional forecasts with high accuracy up to 3 days in advance. Current measurement parameters extend to 48 hours ( Read the 2nd last paragraph about guessing ).

In short, the met office have been pretty spot on with their 1-3 day forecats for the past two weeks.

Wow, a weather expert in only an hour and 18 minutes! I know google is getting good nowadays but that's pretty amazing mate

Can you find anything on google that talks specifically about the central belt? I lived in Harthill for 6 years and I can tell you the weather forecast doesn't have a clue, whether it's a met office forecast, or one done by the BBC. The weather can be the same in Bathgate and Airdrie, but completely the opposite in Harthill, regardless of what the weather forecast said. Anyone who lives there or drives Edinburgh/Glasgow often enough knows that from experience. I don't care what the metoffice write on their website, that's the reality.

Does the current activity status thing on this forum work?

Stuarty's has said "Current Activity: Replying to Thread GM IV Idle banter and turn me on thread" for the last 10 minutes. One on hand I'm waiting for the reply, on the other hand I want to go to bed.

Originally Posted by -Ralph-

Wow, a weather expert in only an hour and 18 minutes! I know google is getting good nowadays but that's pretty amazing mate

Google had absolutely nothing to do with it. 30 secs on the met office website was all it took. No, I'm not a weather expert but I do have 28 years business and professional experience in statistical process modelling. It's remarkably similar to the same methods they use to predict the weather.

Originally Posted by stuartyboy

Google had absolutely nothing to do with it. 30 secs on the met office website was all it took. No, I'm not a weather expert but I do have 28 years business and professional experience in statistical process modelling. It's remarkably similar to the same methods they use to predict the weather.

Was that all I was waiting for? Can I go to bed now?

Originally Posted by -Ralph-

Was that all I was waiting for? Can I go to bed now?

Aye - you need as much sleep as you can get

I CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE!
Weatherman's amazing claim. (p. 94)

Originally Posted by stuartyboy

If you understand the science...

Ah yes, meteorology, the earth science dealing with phenomena of the atmosphere. Water from evaporation rises, cools and condenses until the droplets can no longer be supported by updrafting air and precipiation begins. That is cold, hard science.

"It will rain on Loch Tay on Friday", on the other hand, is fortune telling.

The root mean squared error target is set against a persistance forecast which my 6 year old son could generate, nevertheless, in the specific area of rainfall the Met Office has failed to meet that target for 2010/11. Failed.

Absolutely delighted to say the same thing over and over again, listen to you do the same, volume increasing proportionately to alcohol intake, it's what the GM is all about But let's not.

Now where is Careless with those hugs?

[carelesschucca]

No hugs right now just paranoia. God I get this every year I'm leading the group. Couple of days before it I start to worry about where we are stopping and start to REALLY worry about it. Its weird I know the route, but I always worry about stopping points.

I FEEL EDGY!!!


Ah b*gger it lets have a hug

oh the weather will be fine. Or maybe it won't we'll still be out on motorbikes so its all GOOD!!!