Idle Banter For non SV and non bike related chat (and the odd bit of humour - but if any post isn't suitable it'll get deleted real quick). There's also a "U" rating so please respect this. Newbies can also say "hello" here too. |
|
Thread Tools |
17-04-20, 06:22 AM | #1 |
Member
Mega Poster
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: NE Lincs
Posts: 1,072
|
Troubling (Covid 19 related)
They virus tested almost the whole crew (4800 personnel) of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt of those that had it most showed no symptoms.
https://tinyurl.com/y8zxtx9t Unless a vaccine is developed the only way the virus can be managed is to test everyone and given the number of current UK daily tests, that's not happening soon.
__________________
2016 SV650AL7 2023 GSX-8S |
17-04-20, 07:15 AM | #2 | |
Member
Join Date: May 2016
Location: St Albans
Posts: 364
|
Re: Troubling (Covid 19 related)
Quote:
1. more people have immunity than we realise. 2. the death rate is lower (as a percentage of infections) than has been reported. The problem with testing everyone (at this point) is what are you going to do with that information? You can't isolate everyone, and there would be too many cases for contact tracing. You'd also need to test people regularly (daily?) for any confidence that they haven't caught it since testing. Whether you test or not, the most vulnerable need to be isolated until a vaccine is available. Social distancing is clearly working well enough to slow the rate of hospital admissions. |
|
17-04-20, 07:39 AM | #3 |
Member
Mega Poster
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Ruislip
Posts: 1,131
|
Re: Troubling (Covid 19 related)
I read a similar report where all the occupants of a village on the German/Dutch border were tested for antibodies to the corona virus and something like 15% of people tested positive for exposure.
This testing was criticised for not being sufficiently selective, other corona viruses may have caused false positives, but if the the number were accurate the fatality rate would have only been two or three times worse than regular influenza. Still nasty, but not the end of the world as we know it. |
17-04-20, 07:41 AM | #4 | |
Member
Mega Poster
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: NE Lincs
Posts: 1,072
|
Re: Troubling (Covid 19 related)
Quote:
If we identify all carriers then containing the virus would be easier by only isolating those people instead of the whole country. The alternative would be to accept that everybody is going to have to catch it and hope that most survive.
__________________
2016 SV650AL7 2023 GSX-8S |
|
17-04-20, 08:17 AM | #5 |
Member
Mega Poster
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 1,240
|
Re: Troubling (Covid 19 related)
Data from China published in the British Medical Journal showed that 80% of those testing positive for CV were asymptomatic. So yes, considering the ****-poor testing regime the UK has, you could estimate that the actual number of people infected in the UK is up to 5x the current number. Immunity is building up slowly, but there are still huge numbers of vulnerable people.
To Seeker's point, the Government's original aim was 'herd immunity', but that was based on the extremely flawed premise that a majority of UK citizens are healthy and would be able to get CV and have mild to moderate symptoms. But we're not healthy. 28% of UK adults are clinically obese, for a start. Then millions have long-term conditions like diabetes, COPD, severe asthma etc. These groups are extremely vulnerable to CV. That's why the Government did the screeching u-turn from 'keep calm and carry on' to LOCKDOWN NOW in March. Testing needs to hit Hatt Mancock's goal of 100,000 per day so that CV hot-spots can be found and isolated, and to allow those that have had CV to return to work, while shielding those that haven't. |
17-04-20, 09:04 AM | #6 | |
Member
Join Date: May 2016
Location: St Albans
Posts: 364
|
Re: Troubling (Covid 19 related)
Quote:
The problem with isolating people with infection is that it's always too late. You can't test everyone daily, and people will always become infected. So, you would need to isolate everyone, which is impossible. I think we need to accept that until a vaccine is available, everyone who is going to catch it will. The social-distancing is working to slow the rate, giving hospitals capacity and time for treatments to be made available which will reduce the death rate. |
|
17-04-20, 09:26 AM | #7 | |
Member
Mega Poster
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: NE Lincs
Posts: 1,072
|
Re: Troubling (Covid 19 related)
Again, I'm unsure why you think this is impossible when most of the country is on lockdown right now.
Quote:
If you're trying to contain an outbreak you need to know where it is. On average you carry the virus for 5 days before showing any symptoms but during that time (and afterwards) you're contagious. Wide scale testing would allow you to focus on the hot spots. If you test negative but show symptoms later you get tested again and we'd know that the area you were in may be a potential hot spot.
__________________
2016 SV650AL7 2023 GSX-8S |
|
17-04-20, 09:44 AM | #8 | ||
Member
Join Date: May 2016
Location: St Albans
Posts: 364
|
Re: Troubling (Covid 19 related)
Quote:
Quote:
|
||
17-04-20, 10:41 AM | #9 | |
Member
Mega Poster
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: NE Lincs
Posts: 1,072
|
Re: Troubling (Covid 19 related)
you won't with that attitude
Germany has been testing 50,000 people/day and their death rate is very low, but they have test labs dotted around the country, ours are centralised which makes a bottleneck. Quote:
You're argument seems to be it's too big so we shouldn't try and yet other countries have successfully implemented exactly what I've said. I agree our biggest problem is that we don't have the testing facilities (yet?) and truthfully I have little faith in our government to organise wide scale testing. I don't agree that it's an impracticable idea though, we're just abysmal at organisation.
__________________
2016 SV650AL7 2023 GSX-8S |
|
17-04-20, 11:15 AM | #10 | ||
Member
Join Date: May 2016
Location: St Albans
Posts: 364
|
Re: Troubling (Covid 19 related)
Before I say more, I just wanted to say that I'm not trying to argue this, and realise that people have different (and valid) opinions - even amongst global leaders and experts. I doubt anyone will know what the right approach was for at least five years. That said ...
Quote:
Also, bear in mind that different countries have very different cultures and economies. You can't take one factor and make inferences from it - there are so many possibilities. Maybe Germans shake hands less, or live further apart, or maybe the government fortifies their flour with vitamin D. Who knows ... Quote:
The current plan is to protect the most vulnerable (isolation), reduce spread (social distancing and isolation with symptoms) and attempt to reduce the death rate of those who get it. There are limited resources (people, tests facilities) and widespread testing may not be the best use of them. Something like the convalescent plasma trials are a much better use of resources than using the same resources for a few extra tests which will have little impact. |
||
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
NHS Reported Covid 19 Deaths | DJ123 | Idle Banter | 11 | 29-04-20 06:12 PM |
give up booze for Covid? | Seeker | Idle Banter | 6 | 05-04-20 06:20 AM |
Shopping in the Covid age | Seeker | Idle Banter | 7 | 02-04-20 05:54 PM |
Covid 19 and riding | Seeker | Bikes - Talk & Issues | 23 | 24-03-20 08:27 PM |
Crash.NET - 'Most important race is against Covid-19' | NewsBot | News | 0 | 19-03-20 09:40 AM |