The Org Scottish Referendum

Originally Posted by SoulKiss

The whole "you cant use the pound/will have to change x or y" arguments are rubbish.

They're not rubbish at all, it's just that the specific arguments hinge on exactly what your leaders want to do and they're being very cagey about that. Westminster has an interest in the NO vote because it believes it's best for all it's voters, if Scotland votes yes you cease to be one of those and decisions have to be made that will be best for the rest.

Originally Posted by SoulKiss

Am I missing something or in the days after a Yes vote, wouldnt the 2 governments be able to sit down and write a new treaty covering things like a free border between the countries, that things wont change on currency beyons what legally HAS to happen.

you're not missing anything but the UK would have to write that treaty with an eye to both it's own prosperity and it's other agreements. For example Scotlands designs on EU membership would affect possible border controls.

Originally Posted by SoulKiss

Oh and Spank, on the plus side you could soon have some fine Nuclear Missles parked down the road next to the P&O Cruises terminal.

Oh and probably a CND camp

Good, jobs for Portsmouth. I'd rather that than a power plant. when was the last time a Nuclear missile melted down?

Originally Posted by MisterTommyH

And yet fiscal uncertainty could have a catastrophic effect on the UK economy. It's not just about 10% this way, 90% that. Its about all the arguments, the tit for tat, the fact that no one knows what will happen at the end of all the bartering. It prevents investment. We're just coming out of a time of massive fiscal problems. Already it's been predicted that a yes vote will alter the (remainder of) the UKs recovery from 2.7% to 2.0%. Anything but a No vote introduces uncertainty and risk to both sides.

But the UK without Scotland is still perfectly capable of servicing it's debts and continuing even in a worst case scenario at the end of the bartering and the rest of the world knows this. The uncertainty is there but not nearly so much, at worst it's a short term wobble. The very fact that we ARE coming out of massive fiscal problems is good because it may dampen down the recovery but the recovery will go on.

Originally Posted by MisterTommyH

As far a military risk - its not just about troop numbers. All of our nuclear deterrents are based in Scotland. As is our ability to build new ships (are we really going to build them in a foreign country). Also a large proportion of our long range search and rescue assets. With a Yes vote there will have to be a discussion of whether we somehow have a joint military (difficult given the differing opinions of nuclear deterrents) if not the S&R needs to be moved south of the border - is the infrastructure still there? Will the reduction in range severely effect operations?

Yes, that's gonna be expensive... an expensive capital project that will bring thousands of jobs from Scotland to England. Short term it's annoying but long term it's brilliant for wherever those jobs move to. No, we're not gonna keep building ships in Scotland, not beyond whatever commitments we currently have and it would be costly to be released from so shipbuilding in the rest of the Uk would be the only alternative.


Firstly, I agree with what you are saying about Scotland only being liable for a pro-rata population share. That seems logical to me.

As for you have no national debt? National debt has been around for far longer than the current banking crisis, global economies work on nearly all countries being in debt and a lot of the existing debt (thats still being paid off) dates back to before devolution. And even if you don't agree with that - Scotlands 'allowance' can't be viewed as a simple X amount in, Y amount out in splendid isolation from the UK and the rest of the worlds economies. Mr Salmond may get votes by his belligerent 'we owe nothing' attitude, but it's the people who we (collectively) owe who will ultimately have a say and have the power to affect both countries credit ratings (and don't believe that Scotland can existing without credit). Again - risk for both countries.

Originally Posted by Bibio

... the 3 Scottish notes will become legal tender but only in Scotland..

Only if you guys pass a law to make it so. That would be a good thing, you guys could use something that's legal tender, unlike now.

[Wideboy]

I'm not a hot shot fancy nuclear scientist but I'm fairly sure there's a large amount of nuclear weapons, decaying reactors and even a nuclear weapons factory on English soil already, one of which isn't far from Westminster if it were to explode. That is a daily mail style argument that the SNP have concocted to try and say "look they're disrespecting us by using our land as a nuclear dumping ground".

LOL Bibio, nice try but you don't actually believe that one mate.

When a couple gets divorced, the wife can't absolve herself of any mortgage liability, by saying, "but I don't have any debt, because I only spent the housekeeping money my husband gave me".

The UK's entire finances are in the red, so when Westminster gives Scotland a pot of money, it's borrowed money.

Strictly speaking the current Debt will remain the property and wholly backed by the UK.

In practice what will happen is that the Scottish government will agree to a level of debt to be owed directly to the UK government which will be less per capita than that of the rest of the UK but still significant.

The Scottish government could then default on that debt however they would find it exceedingly difficult to get money off anyone else in that case and they will need money.


Likely hood is that the new debt owed to the UK government would be repayable over 15-20 years and all things being equal Scotland ought to pay more in interest rates to the UK than we are currently paying on it's debt since Scotland alone will be a riskier proposition to the market than the UK as a whole although it may be politically expedient to only charge Scotland the amount the UK is paying.

[Red Herring]

Look on the bright side, there will be plenty of work for brickies rebuilding Hadrian's Wall!

Originally Posted by Bibio

if the United Kingdom really was united why do we still have a BOE dictating out currency and not a Bank of the United Kingdom with a United Kingdom currency...

Because there has been no impetus to rename an organisation which has existed since the 17th century and literally created the modern financial system?

I don't understand why people keep bringing the Scottish issued notes into the discussion. Yes a number of Scottish banks retain the right to print money, yes these are backed by money deposited at the Bank of England. What this has to do with the Scottish Government's finances I have no idea.

The money in the Bank of England either belongs to the relevant bank, or held on behalf of their customers. It is there to give a similar level of protection to the bearer as would be given from a note issues by the Bank of England.

Also, no, Scottish notes aren't technically legal tender, though this is a very narrowly defined term which means nothing in practical terms when exchanging notes for goods or services.

[pegasus]

For those that would like to know, as of today 11/09/2014 :-

Scotland has only 8.3% of the population of the UK...

but also has...

32% of the land area
61% of the sea area
90% of the fresh water
65% of Natural Gas production
96.5% crude oil production
47% open cast coal production
81% untapped coal reserves
62% timber production
46% total forest area
92% hydro electric production
40% wind wave & solar energy production
60% fish landings
30% beef herds
20% sheep flocks
100% whisky production

as well as

17 billion construction industry
13 billion food & drink industry
10 billion service industry
9.3 billion chemical services industry
9.3 billion tourist industry
7 billion financial services
5 billion aero service industry
4.5 billion whisky export industry
3.1 billion life sciences industry
350 million textile exports

also

25% of Europe's wind & wave energy potential
1.5 trillion oil & gas reserves

not bad for 8.3% of the UK

Good luck Scotland, I think you will be fine.

P

Originally Posted by pegasus

65% of Natural Gas production
96.5% crude oil production
47% open cast coal production
81% untapped coal reserves
92% hydro electric production
40% wind wave & solar energy production

None of this belongs to Scotland, it belongs to the companies who have invested in the infrastructure to tap the natural resource, almost none of which are Scottish companies, so the profits go straight back to the shareholders. The countries where these organisations are based are the likes of England (BP, Scottish & Southern Electric), Netherlands (Shell), Germany (E.ON), Spain (Iberdrola which owns Scottish Power), USA (Chevron, ConocoPhilips, etc), and so on goes the list....

The yes campaign keeps drawing parallels with Norway which is absolute nonsense, since Norway's oil company StatOil (State Oil) was set up by and is 67% owed by the state, so it's the state that's the major shareholder and reaps the profits.

The only thing Scotland can hope for is what the UK government gets at the moment, which is the tax revenue. North sea oil and gas paid £4.7bn to the UK in tax revenue in 2013/2014.

https://www.gov.uk/government/upload..._June_2014.pdf

Hardly chump change you might think, but to put that figure in perspective £4.8bn was wiped of the share value of Scottish companies on Monday in a bit of a stock market jitter over the possibility of a Yes vote, though by the end of the day it had recovered back to a 2.6bn drop. Current infrastructure projects in Scotland like the new Forth Bridge, M8/M74 upgrades, Aberdeen Bypass, and Rail upgrades for the borders and Central Belt, are costing £7.5bn. Scotland spends about £150bn per year.

Scottish people are being lied to and led to believe they are rich because of their natural resources, and any comparison to Norway is propaganda.

Originally Posted by Fordward

https://www.gov.uk/government/upload..._June_2014.pdf

Also have a read of the first few pages of this and see how badly tax revenues have declined in past years.