Troubling (Covid 19 related)

[embee]

Originally Posted by keith_d

..... but if the the number were accurate the fatality rate would have only been two or three times worse than regular influenza.

Still nasty, but not the end of the world as we know it.

I take your point, and we have to treat all data and statistics with care because different folk have different agendas.
However, just one fundamental difference between seasonal flu and this particular corona virus is that it is proving to be not seasonal.
Seasonal flu lasts typically 3 or at most 4 months during winter in the UK, we usually have some form of vaccine available for the particular strain, and vulnerable folk are targeted for vaccination.
This corona virus appears to be continuing regardless of season, it won't naturally disappear with the warmer weather.

Out of interest, I have been plotting for a couple of weeks the daily deaths from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and shifted the days until the curves line up, effectively cancelling out the different times when the pandemic broke out in different countries. The last point on each curve is the figure for 16th April 2020, you can count backwards to get an idea of how far behind Spain/Italy the UK is at present.
I would stress that the shifts I have applied are arbitrary, I have just moved the curves until they aligned by eye, I have not manipulated the bare numbers in any other way, they are just reported daily deaths.
I would also add that I have absolutely no agenda regarding this, I have had endless discussions elsewhere about what I'm trying to prove. I'm not trying to prove anything, the numbers are just what they are, take or leave.

I am still staggered at the match for UK/Spain/Italy, and this doesn't seem to be reported in this format anywhere on the media.

I could speculate as to why they should be so similar, we are similar cultures and populations and demographics, and possibly most significant is that we have adopted essentially the same preventive measures, but even so it is remarkable. It may be related to how the virus infection spreads within a large enough population if starting from a defined number of sources, I don't know. As long as the population is above a threshold, the actual total population numbers may not be significant, if there are surplus individuals the virus doesn't reach then the numbers may be irrelevant and it just works on spread from initial exposures in the outbreak. As said, I really don't know, I'm just pondering.
I initially looked just at UK/Italy/Spain because of the superficial similarities in the cultures/demographics.
You can see clearly the difference in Germany, and of course they are cited as taking a somewhat different approach regarding test/trace/treat.
Note this is simply the basic number of deaths reported daily, and we are all aware that there are limitations in that data to be aware of.

[daktulos]

There are lies, damned lies and statistics ... for what it's worth, your graph seems to suggest Sweden is doing better than Germany. I have a friend in Sweden, and he says bars and clubs are open as normal.

The general consensus is that Sweden is doing the wrong thing ... it's twice the size of the UK with a sixth the population. You may find these graphs interesting, which plot the numbers per 100,000 population:

https://newsnodes.com/country/SE

[embee]

There you go. As I said, and spelt out clearly, I have no agenda and I am not trying to prove anything. Dismiss the graph if you wish or add whatever criticisms, I've been through all the discussions and arguments elsewhere already, oh this is wrong, oh that is wrong, but if you look at this etc etc.
Population may well be significant, Germany is around 84M, UK 67M, Italy 60M, Spain 47M.
Sweden is only 10M and the population is concentrated heavily in the south of the country, in some ways it's more comparable to Greater London than anything.
But look, I'm not trying to prove anything, the numbers are what they are. I knew full well it would get that sort of response, been there, have the T-shirt.

[Ruffy]

Originally Posted by Seeker

If we identify all carriers then containing the virus would be easier by only isolating those people instead of the whole country.

This is true. However, I'd suggest it's nigh-on impossible without testing everyone at almost the same time. So ...

Originally Posted by Seeker

The alternative would be to accept that everybody is going to have to catch it and hope that most survive.

This is closer to the truth than you may want to believe. In the absence of a vaccine to kill it, or total simultaneous isolation of absolutely everyone so as to prevent any transmission until it dies off, the only option is to slow the rate of transmission so that healthcare services are not deluged with serious cases and thus overwhelmed. Giving ourselves the best chance to maximise the survival rate with the limited resources we have is a bit better than "hoping" for survival. That's why "Protect the NHS" is part of the slogan in the UK.

Be under no illusion that the intent is to slow the rate of transmission, not stop it. It's a difference that seems now to be being forgotten, or getting lost in messaging, because it has unpalatable consequences (that some will get ill and not survive, however much care is available).

Whilst the control method in other countries may vary (because circumstances and resource constraints are different), the objective is still the same: slow transmission, lower & delay the peak, cope as best they can with the ill.

[Ruffy]

Originally Posted by embee

I am still staggered at the match for UK/Spain/Italy, and this doesn't seem to be reported in this format anywhere on the media.

I may be too cynical, but I suspect this is simply because it doesn't suit political agendas.


BTW embee, I found your examination of the data interesting, because I hadn't seen any similar, complete comparison either. All I've heard on this theme has been "we're x weeks behind Italy ..." and/or "Germany's doing better than we are ...", with the implied or explicit suggestion that that's a horrible situation that we're going to have to repeat because our Government haven't acted well/quickly enough.


Unfortunately, whilst some of us are trying to maintain a more neutral scientific interest, I think it's probably still too early to draw conclusions and, in the meantime, it suits no-one to admit that correlation is not the same as causality and we're basically not able to be in control of it so damage limitation is the best we can aim for.

[Craig380]

This news is very interesting: a new study from Stanford University, released Friday and yet to be peer reviewed, tested samples from 3,330 people in Santa Clara county, California and found the virus was 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicated.

The study identified antibodies in healthy individuals through a finger ***** test, which indicated whether they had already contracted and recovered from the virus.

At the time of the study, Santa Clara county had 1,094 confirmed cases of Covid-19, resulting in 50 deaths. But based on the rate of people who have antibodies, it is likely that between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara county by early April. That also means coronavirus is potentially much less deadly to the overall population than initially thought.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...iously-thought

[DJ123]

The idea of isolation & social distancing is to protect those most vulnerable to it and to not overwhelm the NHS. As has been mentioned people have already overcome this Virus, without there being a Vaccine available. A combination of a good immune system and being treated with the right medication has saved a lot of lives.

I read a good article (which I will try to find& link) that puts out the idea of protecting your vulnerable, by keeping them in isolation/minimising contact, and allowing society/the economy to continue as normal. What we are doing is throwing a lot of money (that will need to be paid back - future tax rises) at propping up the economy in the short term, in the hope it bounces back long term. The issue is the longer you keep a lock down on, the bigger the financial deficit & the bigger the impact on society too.

When lock down comes to lifting, just like Spain & Italy, there still won't be a vaccine. You will have to slowly release the lock down and start to open some shops and allow society to flow again. You still keeping in place social distancing and deep cleans in public places going, but you can allow society 'out'. Using this as a test bed (watching Spain & Italy) you will soon see if there's a 2nd wave or people infected going back in to society, and if mortality rates rise.

I agree with doing the best we (society/the country) can for the greater good. But there also needs to be a balance adjusted too. There needs be an 'acceptance' that this Virus has, and will cause fatalities but there will also be a lot more people who it will not, or hasn't got the better of.
If you watch the news they only mention those who have unfortunately lost their lives; not people who have 'recovered' from it. Why would you not want to show what is positive news in a bleak time?
Currently in the UK we have only carried out 438,991 tests, and so far 14,576 have died. That is a 3% rate, and I believe the expected rate was 5% - we have tested less than 1% of the total population . . . . At the risk of sounding like I am looking for a silver lining; how is that not good news for those that have recovered?

[DJ123]

Originally Posted by embee

I am quoting for the reference of the Graph only.

The big similarities between Spain & Italy is the culture; big families, lots of the older generations and their greeting (like Southern France) is very personal; kisses, hugs, holding hands etc. Germany, not so much and neither is the UK.

However, I believe in the UK the areas which have large Religious followings are bad for infections (areas such as Slough & Birmingham for example) due to mass congregations on a regular basis, again with large close family/friends. I am not saying it is the only reason, but it is certainly a catalyst to the spreading rate of a person to person Virus.

[embee]

Unfortunately the figures for Spain over the last few days have been revised on the https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ website, I can only guess there have been issues with reporting in Spain. The apparent improvement shown by Spain has disappeared and they are still following Italy pretty much exactly.
I haven't bothered to post the latest graph showing this but we are still on track too. Not looking particularly encouraging.

[DJ123]

Unfortunately, there will always be those with an immune system that won't be able to fight it off & medical intervention can't help either. The only protection for these vulnerable people is to isolate as much as reasonably possible until the risk level of infection is as low as it can safely be.