The Org Scottish Referendum

Originally Posted by Bibio

i dont get this whole thing about it going to cost the Scottish public more for this and that as i have seen no hard evidence of such things, .

You think the BBC will sell you programs at cost price?

Or perhaps that 9% of the UK can make programs cheaper and to the same quality as 100% of it?

As I said it also MAY be cheaper... If it is though I suspect it will be very poor quality and if you think the BBC is bad you should try maltese TV.

Originally Posted by Bibio

according to the media we wont make it work unless we are part of the union which means to me that what they are trying to say is that 'you are costing the rest of the UK money to be in the union' well if thats the case then the rest of the union should be happy we are leaving as there should be more money for the rest of you.

I've already shown the maths in this thread. Maths direct from the Scottish government website.

Even with oil Scotland runs a slightly higher deficit than the rest of the UK for all services but I believe that per head we'll all be paying more if we start duplicating services for two separate countries.

I don't see the UK losing 9% of civil servants in the event of independence (And even if we do, it wont be 9% of the wages bill) and I doubt Scotland can set up a complete public sector for 9% of the price of the UK's although I have no hard numbers on that, I wouldn't know where to start.

Perhaps the yes campaigns economic argument is less than convincing.
Perhaps people are doing OK in the UK and don't want to risk.
Perhaps the UK actually means something.
Perhaps.

Spank just hit the nail on the head with one of of the issues for England, economies of scale.

Another issue combined to that is jobs. Civil servants currently do jobs that cover the whole of the UK, if we loose 9% of the population, we won't be able to loose 9% of the jobs because the same work still needs to be done, so the same departments and structure still need to exist, but for a lesser workload. There will be redundancies, and because structure and departmental management will still be needed, it will be the lower end of the pay scale that gets cut, the people that are doing the doing. In shouldn't cost the UK anything to make them redundant as TUPE laws should protect them and the new organisation setting up the same service in Scotland will be obliged to either offer each person a job in Scotland, or cover the cost of their redundancy, but we still don't want those people out of work. Yes, other jobs will migrate south, so the overall unemployment total may not change, but they will be different jobs requiring different skill sets, and probably based in a different location. Look at organisations like the DVLA, when they have millions fewer driving licenses and registration documents to administer. The DVLA is a massive employer in Swansea.

The same will go for any organisation that sells services in Scotland, the cost of doing business will go up, so the price to the consumer will go up, so consumers in Scotland may just switch to locally provided services.

If there is a yes vote on Thursday, you can guarantee on Friday, then again on Monday because the Eastern markets will have been open for ages by the time the result is announced on Friday morning UK time, there will be a massive wipe down of share prices of UK companies, and it will trigger another run on the pound as a currency like we saw last Monday, but this time a bigger one. Investors have a choice where there they put their money, so if the UK pound has an uncertain future, and exchange rates are dropping, they'll just move their investments. What I wouldn't be surprised to see if Yes is Westminster announce officially that they will not be a currency union, that the decision is made and they won't even negotiate on it with the SNP, this would hold some of the confidence in the pound with overseas markets. (If you think Scotland gets screwed over by Westminster now, you wait until after a Yes vote when they go into self preservation mode, they won't give Salmond anything he's promised the Scottish people, but of course it wasn't his place to make the promise in the first place, so it'll serve him right and the people who were blind enough to follow the pied piper).

Will come back and post more UK wide impact later, need to take the wee one to school.

Originally Posted by Fordward

What I wouldn't be surprised to see if Yes is Westminster announce officially that they will not be a currency union, that the decision is made and they won't even negotiate on it with the SNP, this would hold some of the confidence in the pound with overseas markets.

Every single opinion I've read on this from actual economists says that Scotland would be worse off in a currency union and rUK would be crazy to accept a currency union.

I can't believe that the SNP aren't aware of that. My bet is that they are hiding it from Yes voters because they think the prospect is a bit too scary for those near the fence.

Interestingly from what I've seen joining the Euro is actually not really an option. Which leaves continuing to use GBP without a formal union or a new Scottish currency.

No currency union
No Euro.
At this present moment in time,
Independent Scotland doesn't have a currency or even a possible agreement on a currency.

I am no economist but I think that could be a pickle.

[carelesschucca]

Originally Posted by SvNewbie

I can't believe that the SNP aren't aware of that. My bet is that they are hiding it from Yes voters because they think the prospect is a bit too scary for those near the fence.

They probably are aware but...

The YES campaign is built on Optimism, and only optimism, pragmatism and pessimism are not allowed. SO IN OTHER WORDS BLIND FAITH!

[punyXpress]

The answer is, and always has been, to use the Pound Stirling.
Don't think the Canadians and Australians asked US of A for their permission to use $$$

[TamSV]

Originally Posted by SvNewbie

Every single opinion I've read on this from actual economists says that Scotland would be worse off in a currency union and rUK would be crazy to accept a currency union.

I can't believe that the SNP aren't aware of that. My bet is that they are hiding it from Yes voters because they think the prospect is a bit too scary for those near the fence.

Interestingly from what I've seen joining the Euro is actually not really an option. Which leaves continuing to use GBP without a formal union or a new Scottish currency.

I agree. If, as the SNP predict, the Scottish economy will boom and rUK will not (or if the opposite happens) the last thing you need is a central bank that won't respond to that. We know from looking at Ireland and Greece what happens in both those situations. The best solution is likely a Scottish central bank and an independent currency.

As you say the SNP must know this but then you're into the politics. The UK government are not willing to negotiate in advance of the referendum - it would be politically impossible for them to do so. This leaves the SNP needing to fill the void but free to come up with pretty much anything they like as a suggested outcome.

As they are seeking to convince non-SNP supporters to their cause, they have unsurprisingly come up with a package that is designed not to frighten the horses - to suggest that everything will be the same. This has some logical flaws of course. Why would you want to leave the UK and all its institutions only to then create a tiny identikit version of it all?

As an example, many in the SNP are republican to their core. For the party to say they will keep the Queen is, to me, an obvious electoral ploy. Many hope that the issue of the monarchy will be dealt with after independence so they are not talking about it now. You could argue that's fair enough as it is a different issue but it illustrates the point that the type of Scotland the SNP are proposing is not necessarily the Scotland they actually want to see and, anyway, as it's all subject to the uncertain outcome of negotiations, it's not something they can ever hope to deliver in its entirety.

As someone who leans towards independence this causes me some issues. My problem is not that I disagree with the SNP manifesto, although I do believe it to be flawed. Political manifesto's are rarely delivered and I would hope this one will be no different. In any event the Yes campaign is bigger than the SNP. Many people will vote Yes who do not support that party just the same as many people who voted SNP at the last election will vote No in the referendum. From my own perspective, it probably suits that as much as possible stays the same, including a currency union of some description. The various political parties can then adjust to the new reality and we go from there. Our problem at the moment is that there is no competing mainstream vision for an independent Scotland.

I do have some concern for the people who don't spend too much time thinking about such matters who may not realise they are being sold a pup. That things may initially be the same, but they won't stay that way. Then again, those are the people who don't normally vote and, if they did, may be destined to always be misled by the next politician with a good story - so maybe I shouldn't worry about them so much.

Originally Posted by punyXpress

The answer is, and always has been, to use the Pound Stirling.
Don't think the Canadians and Australians asked US of A for their permission to use $$$

There's a difference between using the pound independently without permission, and using it as part of a currency union, whereby the Scottish central bank would be backed by the UK, and Scotland would maintain a level of influence over the Bank of England. That's not going to happen, even though Salmond says he can negotiate it and that is his stated Plan A

So, Plan B is using it independently which means absolutely no control over interest rates, etc, etc. Scotland would be as beholden to the UK as it is now.

Plan C, using the Euro doesn't work, Scotland would be beholden to Brussels, Spain and Greece have proved that, and they have a lot more influence over the Central European Bank than Scotland would have over the Bank of England. Though at least they may have someone to bail them out if it goes wrong.

So Plan D, which I think is the best one, is to create an all new Scottish currency, based in Edinburgh. That would take time for confidence in the currency to build, but at least that would give Scotland control over it's own currency in the long term.

If you want independence because in Mel Gibsons words, you want a 'country of your own', that's fair enough, but the SNP do not have a credible story to tell, about how you get there.

Originally Posted by punyXpress

The answer is, and always has been, to use the Pound Stirling.
Don't think the Canadians and Australians asked US of A for their permission to use $$$

Scotland are free to use whichever keyboard symbol they like. they can even call it Scottish sterling.


unless youre suggesting the aussie and canuck $'s are the same as USA ones?