Front page of The Independent.

Originally Posted by Razor

The UK is an importer of gas.

from the north sealanders?

" As Dr Campbell explains: "When I was the boss of an oil company I would never tell the truth. It's not part of the game." "

Oil companies are not going to admit anything about oil depletion, imagine what their stock prices would do. The rub is, nobody connected with an oil company will openly admit there is an issue... Until they retire and then they join the ever increasing group of ex-geologists that are trying to warn people about an impending crisis.

Originally Posted by keithd

from the north sealanders?

No GAZPROM

I bought and read this book:



On Razor's instructions the last time this was raised.

Good book. The only bit of wiggle room that I saw in his argument was in the estimates of Saudi Reserves. Yes they've been lying, but this really is a big unknown, and so assuming the worst of the plausible scenarios may not be justified. Other than than it has a good explanation of the overall situation.

As a few people have said, it's not running out that's the issue, it's peaking of production, which happens when reserves are only HALF used up. Plenty of very good arguments why this will likely be in the region of 2020 or a bit earlier. Saying "you said this before and you were wrong !!!111! lol " isn't really a valid counter argument.


Development of replacement alternative energy sources can't happen over night, simply because oil is such a fantastically good concentrated cheap source of energy. The entire modern global economy is predicated upon cheap oil, and when supply can no longer match the demand that has been built up, the price won't gently rise, it'll shoot up. The stuff is essential. Imagine the price of food if there's only enough for 95% of the population. It wouldn't just be 5% higher than normal. Same for oil, everyone needs it.

History is has plenty of examples of failed civilisations that were dependent on mining a finite resource.

Mac, I'm stunned. Thank you

As others have said, oil won't run out overnight. It'll get gradually more expensive (far quicker than inflation), this running out (which will occur over years, if not decades) will act as a transition period to alternatives. It's not like fuel prices will quadruple overnight or anything drastic like that.

As fuel runs out, new engines will get dramatically more efficient in their final few years (as the emphasis switches from performance to economy) and people will switch to smaller cars/bikes. Similarly, the rate of development of and introduction of the alternatives will be inversely proportional to the amount of fossil fuel remaining.

That's all assuming it's actually running out at all... there are some scientists who don't believe it is.

I personally believe that peak of world oil production is within the next 3 years. After which the decline will set in. I'd love to say that it will be a peaceful transition to alternatives, but I doubt that very much.

By 2020 the world will be a much different place.

Originally Posted by Razor

" As Dr Campbell explains: "When I was the boss of an oil company I would never tell the truth. It's not part of the game." "

Oil companies are not going to admit anything about oil depletion, imagine what their stock prices would do. The rub is, nobody connected with an oil company will openly admit there is an issue... Until they retire and then they join the ever increasing group of ex-geologists that are trying to warn people about an impending crisis.

ok playing devils advocate....

why is it only retired employees who announce this impending doom? why no ex employees with a grudge? nobody who's been fired for whatever reason? nobody made redundant due to ambiguous cutbacks? have any of these guys come forward to inform us of these shortages?

dementia can be a cruel mistress...

A few people have mentioned the year 2020, which is only 13 years away. I personally have plans in place to retire on a lovely ex-Police officers pension in 17 years, and had intended to spend my retirement at a very fast pace, i.e. riding my SV, (or whatever incarnation there is of it in 17 years time).

I'm now not convinced that we will even have MOTORbikes when I retire. The name comes from a bike having an internal combustion engine (MOTOR) in it, but by then we will probably all be on some kind of futuristic battery powered scooter type thing, that does about 100 miles a day, at, wait for it,,,, 30mph. It'll probably get plugged into the electric at home (which comes from hydro/nuclear/wind power stations and we charge it up overnight at about £100.00 per charge !!!!!!!!!, so when we all took the P*SS out of Sir Clive Sinclair and his C5 contraption in the eighties, he probably sat back and thought, we'll see who's laughing in about 35 years time ya tw*ts.

So, all that pointless crap above brings me onto my point, (there is one you ask ???????), in the mean time, while there is oil, and I can still afford to buy petrol, (just), I intend to get out on my SV as often as I can and wring the f**kers neck at every opportunity.

Let's enjoy it while we've still got it.

Originally Posted by Well Oiled

Oil WILL run out. The main problem is the exponential rise in demand from developing countries, especially China and India. It's not the same as it was in the seventies. At that time reserves were being depleted but new sources were being found just as fast. That's not the case any more.

In a few decades burning oil for leisure (like a lot of our motorcycling) will just not be an option. No, I don't like it either but that's how it is.

Will you change your name when it happens?