Flu or a State of Fear

[Dave20046]

Ah yes, I was thinking 1 person out of 109 of the population would be infected and die of it. Not 1 out of 109 infected would die.

That article I linked reckoned it passes efficiently.

Originally Posted by dr

The virus is mutating and changing all the time. Right now we don't know how virulent it is, but it is very effective at passing from one person to another

Originally Posted by Dave20046

Ah yes, I was thinking 1 person out of 109 of the population would be infected and die of it. Not 1 out of 109 infected would die.

That article I linked reckoned it passes efficiently.

A Sheffield University professor, or the World Health Organisation?

I know who I'm listening to.

Originally Posted by Baph

Data from the US only in the table...

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/

1 person out of 109 infected has died. Therefore using the US as a sample to project globally, mortality rate is around 1%. Did you think I plucked the number from thin air?

Yes, I know the implications of projecting such a small sample globally, but that's about the best data we have to go on.

EDIT: The WHO article below states as of yesterday, Mexico has 156 cases, of which 9 deaths. I make that 264 cases, 10 deaths, within the US & Mexico. That lifts mortality rate projections to 2-3%.

EDIT2: I forgot to add the WHO article link. Oops. http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_01/en/index.html

Nah...1 person dying out of 109 infected is NOT statistically relevant! Sample size etc...come on you know this!

Ive now received an email from work warning me about Swine flu and to take precuations so that I dont get it

Please follow commonsense and responsible preventative measures:
• Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze.
• Bin your tissue after use.
• If you don’t have a tissue, cough or sneeze into your upper sleeve, not your hands.
• Wash your hands regularly with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze and before eating.
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Flu spreads that way. --> "oh really? I never knew! (can you tell im being sarcastic?)
• Stay away from others if you develop flu-like symptoms. Tell someone and go home.

[fizzwheel]

Originally Posted by Miss Alpinestarhero

Ive now received an email from work warning me about Swine flu and to take precuations so that I dont get it

I've just had a very similar one... my response was similar to yours...

Don't panic folks, the biggest outbreak is where I stay. When I get it I'll let you know so you can all clean your computers so as not to catch it ;(

so, tell me then. i'm relatively fit, 40 years old, i catch it whats my chances of shuffling off this mortal coil?

Originally Posted by keithd

so, tell me then. i'm relatively fit, 40 years old, i catch it whats my chances of shuffling off this mortal coil?

1% if you catch it. 100% chance of dying at some point. If you are american, and don't catch it, you can expect 37 years more poll options

seems like a percentage i can live with. or not as the case may be.

i expect i'll be alright then

Originally Posted by keithd

seems like a percentage i can live with. or not as the case may be.

i expect i'll be alright then

99.something% chance you will live through this pandemic and into the next one